IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/econom/v234y2023i2p536-564.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Partially identifying competing risks models: An application to the war on cancer

Author

Listed:
  • Kim, Dongwoo

Abstract

Competing risks models for discretely measured durations are partially identifying due to the unknown dependence structure between risks and the discrete nature of the outcome. This article develops a highly tractable bounds approach for underlying distributions of latent durations by exploiting the discreteness. Bounds are obtained from a system of nonlinear (in)equalities. I devise a sequential solution method that requires much less computational burden than existing methods. Asymptotic properties of bound estimators and a simple bootstrap procedure are provided. I apply the proposed approach to re-evaluate trends in cancer mortality extending the data studied in Honoré and Lleras-Muney (2006). Estimated patterns differ from the original findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Dongwoo, 2023. "Partially identifying competing risks models: An application to the war on cancer," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 536-564.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:234:y:2023:i:2:p:536-564
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.07.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407621001913
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.07.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Sokbae & Lewbel, Arthur, 2013. "Nonparametric Identification Of Accelerated Failure Time Competing Risks Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(5), pages 905-919, October.
    2. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Guggenberger, Patrik, 2009. "Validity Of Subsampling And “Plug-In Asymptotic” Inference For Parameters Defined By Moment Inequalities," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 669-709, June.
    3. Lison L. Booth & Stephen E. Satchell, 1995. "The Hazards of Doing a Phd: An Analysis of Completion and Withdrawal Rates of British Phd Students in the 1980S," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 158(2), pages 297-318, March.
    4. Bo E. Honoré & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "Bounds in Competing Risks Models and the War on Cancer," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1675-1698, November.
    5. McCall, Brian P, 1996. "Unemployment Insurance Rules, Joblessness, and Part-Time Work," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 647-682, May.
    6. Henry S. Farber & Robert G. Valletta, 2015. "Do Extended Unemployment Benefits Lengthen Unemployment Spells?: Evidence from Recent Cycles in the U.S. Labor Market," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(4), pages 873-909.
    7. Bruce Fallick & Keunkwan Ryu, 2007. "The Recall and New Job Search of Laid-Off Workers: A Bivariate Proportional Hazard Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 313-323, May.
    8. Yi‐Hau Chen, 2010. "Semiparametric marginal regression analysis for dependent competing risks under an assumed copula," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(2), pages 235-251, March.
    9. Henry S. Farber & Jesse Rothstein & Robert G. Valletta, 2015. "The Effect of Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits: Evidence from the 2012-2013 Phase-Out," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 171-176, May.
    10. Guido W. Imbens & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(6), pages 1845-1857, November.
    11. David M. Cutler, 2008. "Are We Finally Winning the War on Cancer?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 3-26, Fall.
    12. Ian Gregory‐Smith & Steve Thompson & Peter W. Wright, 2009. "Fired or Retired? A Competing Risks Analysis of Chief Executive Turnover," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(536), pages 463-481, March.
    13. Katz, Lawrence F. & Meyer, Bruce D., 1990. "The impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 45-72, February.
    14. Simon M. S. Lo & Ralf A. Wilke, 2010. "A copula model for dependent competing risks," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 59(2), pages 359-376, March.
    15. Sueyoshi, Glenn T., 1992. "Semiparametric proportional hazards estimation of competing risks models with time-varying covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 25-58.
    16. Andrew Chesher & Adam M. Rosen, 2017. "Generalized Instrumental Variable Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 959-989, May.
    17. Francesca Molinari, 2020. "Microeconometrics with Partial Identification," Papers 2004.11751, arXiv.org.
    18. Victor Chernozhukov & Han Hong & Elie Tamer, 2007. "Estimation and Confidence Regions for Parameter Sets in Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1243-1284, September.
    19. Fan, Yanqin & Liu, Ruixuan, 2018. "Partial identification and inference in censored quantile regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 1-38.
    20. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    21. Sokbae Lee, 2006. "Identification of a competing risks model with unknown transformations of latent failure times," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 93(4), pages 996-1002, December.
    22. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M.
    23. Donald W. K. Andrews & Sukjin Han, 2009. "Invalidity of the bootstrap and the m out of n bootstrap for confidence interval endpoints defined by moment inequalities," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(s1), pages 172-199, January.
    24. Rosen, Adam M., 2008. "Confidence sets for partially identified parameters that satisfy a finite number of moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 107-117, September.
    25. Donald W. K. Andrews & Gustavo Soares, 2010. "Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities Using Generalized Moment Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 119-157, January.
    26. Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2010. "Inference for the Identified Set in Partially Identified Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 169-211, January.
    27. Rivest, Louis-Paul & Wells, Martin T., 2001. "A Martingale Approach to the Copula-Graphic Estimator for the Survival Function under Dependent Censoring," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 138-155, October.
    28. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. Van Den Berg, 2003. "The identifiability of the mixed proportional hazards competing risks model," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(3), pages 701-710, August.
    29. Brendan Kline & Elie Tamer, 2016. "Bayesian inference in a class of partially identified models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 329-366, July.
    30. Donald W. K. Andrews & Panle Jia Barwick, 2012. "Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities: A Recommended Moment Selection Procedure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2805-2826, November.
    31. Jorg Stoye, 2009. "More on Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1299-1315, July.
    32. Ann Berrington & Ian Diamond, 2000. "Marriage or cohabitation: a competing risks analysis of first‐partnership formation among the 1958 British birth cohort," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(2), pages 127-151.
    33. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
    34. Ruixuan Liu, 2020. "A competing risks model with time‐varying heterogeneity and simultaneous failure," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(2), pages 535-577, May.
    35. Firpo, Sergio & Ridder, Geert, 2019. "Partial identification of the treatment effect distribution and its functionals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 210-234.
    36. Flinn, C. & Heckman, J., 1982. "New methods for analyzing structural models of labor force dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-168, January.
    37. Xuelin Huang & Nan Zhang, 2008. "Regression Survival Analysis with an Assumed Copula for Dependent Censoring: A Sensitivity Analysis Approach," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1090-1099, December.
    38. Federico A. Bugni, 2010. "Bootstrap Inference in Partially Identified Models Defined by Moment Inequalities: Coverage of the Identified Set," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 735-753, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shosei Sakaguchi, 2024. "Partial identification and inference in duration models with endogenous censoring," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 308-326, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy M. Christensen & Elie Tamer, 2018. "Monte Carlo Confidence Sets for Identified Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 1965-2018, November.
    2. Federico A. Bugni & Ivan A. Canay & Xiaoxia Shi, 2014. "Inference for functions of partially identified parameters in moment inequality models," CeMMAP working papers 22/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy Christensen & Keith O’Hara & Elie Tamer, 2016. "MCMC Confidence sets for Identified Sets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2037R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2016.
    4. Fan, Yanqin & Liu, Ruixuan, 2018. "Partial identification and inference in censored quantile regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 1-38.
    5. Donald W. K. Andrews & Xiaoxia Shi, 2013. "Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(2), pages 609-666, March.
    6. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy M. Christensen & Keith O'Hara & Elie Tamer, 2016. "MCMC confidence sets for identified sets," CeMMAP working papers 28/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy M. Christensen & Elie Tamer, 2017. "Monte Carlo confidence sets for identified sets," CeMMAP working papers 43/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Hiroaki Kaido & Francesca Molinari & Jörg Stoye, 2019. "Confidence Intervals for Projections of Partially Identified Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1397-1432, July.
    9. Ho, Kate & Rosen, Adam M., 2015. "Partial Identification in Applied Research: Benefits and Challenges," CEPR Discussion Papers 10883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Yuan Liao & Anna Simoni, 2016. "Bayesian Inference for Partially Identified Convex Models: Is it Valid for Frequentist Inference?," Departmental Working Papers 201607, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    11. Ivan A. Canay & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2016. "Practical and theoretical advances in inference for partially identified models," CeMMAP working papers 05/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    12. Donald W. K. Andrews & Panle Jia Barwick, 2012. "Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities: A Recommended Moment Selection Procedure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2805-2826, November.
    13. Chen, Le-Yu & Szroeter, Jerzy, 2014. "Testing multiple inequality hypotheses: A smoothed indicator approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 678-693.
    14. Magnac, Thierry, 2013. "Identification partielle : méthodes et conséquences pour les applications empiriques," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 233-258, Décembre.
    15. Liao, Yuan & Simoni, Anna, 2019. "Bayesian inference for partially identified smooth convex models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 338-360.
    16. Sasaki, Yuya & Takahashi, Yuya & Xin, Yi & Hu, Yingyao, 2023. "Dynamic discrete choice models with incomplete data: Sharp identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    17. Yuichi Kitamura & Jörg Stoye, 2018. "Nonparametric Analysis of Random Utility Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 1883-1909, November.
    18. Yuan Liao & Anna Simoni, 2012. "Semi-parametric Bayesian Partially Identified Models based on Support Function," Papers 1212.3267, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2013.
    19. Lee, Sokbae & Song, Kyungchul & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2018. "Testing For A General Class Of Functional Inequalities," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(5), pages 1018-1064, October.
    20. Francesca Molinari, 2020. "Microeconometrics with Partial Identification," Papers 2004.11751, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:234:y:2023:i:2:p:536-564. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.