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High†dimensional macroeconomic forecasting and variable selection via penalized regression

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  • Yoshimasa Uematsu
  • Shinya Tanaka

Abstract

SummaryThis study examines high-dimensional forecasting and variable selection via folded-concave penalized regressions. The penalized regression approach leads to sparse estimates of the regression coefficients and allows the dimensionality of the model to be much larger than the sample size. First, we discuss the theoretical aspects of a penalized regression in a time series setting. Specifically, we show the oracle inequality with ultra-high-dimensional time-dependent regressors. Then we show the validity of the penalized regression using two empirical applications. First, we forecast quarterly US gross domestic product data using a high-dimensional monthly data set and the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) framework with penalization. Second, we examine how well the penalized regression screens a hidden portfolio based on a large New York Stock Exchange stock price data set. Both applications show that a penalized regression provides remarkable results in terms of forecasting performance and variable selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshimasa Uematsu & Shinya Tanaka, 2019. "High†dimensional macroeconomic forecasting and variable selection via penalized regression," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(1), pages 34-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:emjrnl:v:22:y:2019:i:1:p:34-56.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ectj.12117
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrii Babii & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2022. "Machine Learning Time Series Regressions With an Application to Nowcasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1094-1106, June.
    2. Román Salmerón Gómez & Ainara Rodríguez Sánchez & Catalina García García & José García Pérez, 2020. "The VIF and MSE in Raise Regression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-28, April.
    3. Mogliani, Matteo & Simoni, Anna, 2021. "Bayesian MIDAS penalized regressions: Estimation, selection, and prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 833-860.
    4. Ricardo P. Masini & Marcelo C. Medeiros & Eduardo F. Mendes, 2023. "Machine learning advances for time series forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 76-111, February.
    5. Richard Schnorrenberger & Aishameriane Schmidt & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2024. "Harnessing Machine Learning for Real-Time Inflation Nowcasting," Working Papers 806, DNB.
    6. Zemin Zheng & Jinchi Lv & Wei Lin, 2021. "Nonsparse Learning with Latent Variables," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 346-359, January.
    7. Hwee Kwan Chow & Yijie Fei & Daniel Han, 2023. "Forecasting GDP with many predictors in a small open economy: forecast or information pooling?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 805-829, August.
    8. Yoshimasa Uematsu & Takashi Yamagata, 2019. "Estimation of Weak Factor Models," ISER Discussion Paper 1053r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Mar 2020.
    9. Yoshimasa Uematsu & Takashi Yamagata, 2019. "Estimation of Weak Factor Models," DSSR Discussion Papers 96, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    10. Sander Barendse, 2023. "Expected Shortfall LASSO," Papers 2307.01033, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    11. Yoshiki Nakajima & Naoya Sueishi, 2022. "Forecasting the Japanese macroeconomy using high-dimensional data," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 299-324, April.
    12. Jan G. De Gooijer, 2023. "Penalized Averaging of Quantile Forecasts from GARCH Models with Many Exogenous Predictors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 407-424, June.

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