IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/crimin/v63y2023i3p570-587..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Political Economy of Crime: Did Universal Credit Increase Crime Rates?

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Tiratelli
  • Ben Bradford
  • Julia Yesberg

Abstract

Interest in the political economy of crime goes back to sociology’s founding fathers, but the nature of the relationship between restrictive social security systems and crime remains contested. This paper exploits exogenous variation in the introduction of Universal Credit (UC) to local areas across England and Wales to address this question. We first use fixed effects models, with a range of controls, to show that as UC enrolments increase in a given area, so does the crime rate. We then use interrupted time series analysis to show that, despite UC being rolled out at different times in different places, its introduction in each local area coincides with a positive shift in the trend in crime. These findings hold for total crime, property crime and violent crime. Borrowing from Strain Theory and Routine Activities Theory, we suggest that changes to the pool of motivated offenders may help to explain these correlations.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Tiratelli & Ben Bradford & Julia Yesberg, 2023. "The Political Economy of Crime: Did Universal Credit Increase Crime Rates?," The British Journal of Criminology, Centre for Crime and Justice Studies, vol. 63(3), pages 570-587.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:crimin:v:63:y:2023:i:3:p:570-587.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/bjc/azac043
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    2. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    3. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    4. Damian Grimshaw & Jill Rubery, 2012. "The end of the UK's liberal collectivist social model? The implications of the coalition government's policy during the austerity crisis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 36(1), pages 105-126.
    5. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    6. Meloni, Osvaldo, 2014. "Does poverty relief spending reduce crime? Evidence from Argentina," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-38.
    7. Rudolph, Maximilian & Starke, Peter, 2020. "How does the welfare state reduce crime? The effect of program characteristics and decommodification across 18 OECD-countries," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Kim, Sang-Weon & Pridemore, William Alex, 2005. "Social support and homicide in transitional Russia," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 561-572.
    9. Price V. Fishback & Ryan S. Johnson & Shawn Kantor, 2010. "Striking at the Roots of Crime: The Impact of Welfare Spending on Crime during the Great Depression," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(4), pages 715-740.
    10. Orrick, Erin A. & Worrall, John L. & Morris, Robert G. & Piquero, Alex R. & Bales, William D. & Wang, Xia, 2011. "Testing Social Support Theory: A Multilevel Analysis of Recidivism," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 499-508.
    11. Hope Corman & Dhaval M. Dave & Nancy E. Reichman, 2018. "Age Gradient in Female Crime: Welfare Reform as a Turning Point," NBER Working Papers 24464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eugen Dimant & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2020. "Paying Them to Hate US: The Effect of U.S. Military Aid on Anti-American Terrorism, 1968-2014," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 013, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    2. Eric Melander & Martina Miotto, 2023. "Welfare Cuts and Crime: Evidence from the New Poor Law," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(651), pages 1248-1264.
    3. Peppel-Srebrny, Jemima, 2021. "Not all government budget deficits are created equal: Evidence from advanced economies' sovereign bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Mathur, Neil K. & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2023. "Marijuana legalization and opioid deaths," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Batkeyev, Birzhan & DeRemer, David R., 2023. "Mountains of evidence: The effects of abnormal air pollution on crime," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 288-319.
    6. Albuquerque, Bruno & Varadi, Alexandra, 2022. "Consumption effects of mortgage payment," Bank of England working papers 963, Bank of England.
    7. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    8. Hazra, Devika & Aranzazu, Jose, 2022. "Crime, correction, education and welfare in the U.S. – What role does the government play?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 474-491.
    9. Meyer, Sophie-Charlotte, 2016. "Maternal employment and childhood overweight in Germany," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 84-102.
    10. Czarnitzki, Dirk & Doherr, Thorsten & Hussinger, Katrin & Schliessler, Paula & Toole, Andrew A., 2016. "Knowledge Creates Markets: The influence of entrepreneurial support and patent rights on academic entrepreneurship," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 131-146.
    11. Bakx, Pieter & Wouterse, Bram & van Doorslaer, Eddy & Wong, Albert, 2020. "Better off at home? Effects of nursing home eligibility on costs, hospitalizations and survival," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Ellis, Jimmy R. & Gershenson, Seth, 2016. "LATE for the Meeting: Gender, Peer Advising, and College Success," IZA Discussion Papers 9956, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Fatica, Serena, 2009. "Taxation and the quality of institutions: asymmetric effects on FDI," MPRA Paper 24179, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2010.
    14. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    15. Boris HirschBy & Daniel S. J. Lechmann & Claus Schnabel, 2017. "Coming to work while sick: an economic theory of presenteeism with an application to German data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 1010-1031.
    16. Costa-Font, Joan & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi & Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina, 2022. "Do Public Caregiving Subsidies and Supports affect the Provision of Care and Transfers?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    17. Kuzman, Tanja & Lazarevic, Jelisaveta & Nedeljkovic, Milan, 2022. "Capital flows liberalisation and macroprudential policies: The effects on credit cycles in emerging economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 602-619.
    18. Klaus Friesenbichler & Michael Peneder, 2016. "Innovation, competition and productivity," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 24(3), pages 535-580, July.
    19. Alfredo Paloyo & Arndt Reichert, 2017. "Biting Back at Malaria: Assessing Health-service Providers' Compliance with Treatment Guidelines," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 591-626, August.
    20. Kere, Eric Nazindigouba & Choumert, Johanna & Combes Motel, Pascale & Combes, Jean Louis & Santoni, Olivier & Schwartz, Sonia, 2017. "Addressing Contextual and Location Biases in the Assessment of Protected Areas Effectiveness on Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazônia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 148-158.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:crimin:v:63:y:2023:i:3:p:570-587.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/bjc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.