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Monetary Policy Transmission in Vector Autoregressions: A New Approach Using Central Bank Communication

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  • Matthias Neuenkirch

    (University of Aachen)

Abstract

In this paper, we study the role played by central bank communication in monetary policy transmission. We employ the Swiss Economic Institute’s Monetary Policy Communicator to measure the future stance of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. Our results indicate, first, that communication has an influence on inflation (expectations) similar to that of actual target rate changes. Communication also plays a noticeable role in the transmission of monetary policy to output. Consequently, future work on monetary policy transmission should incorporate both a short-term interest rate and a communication indicator. A second finding is that the monetary policy transmission mechanism changed during the financial crisis as the overall effect of monetary policy on (expected) inflation and output is weaker and of shorter duration during this period compared to the overall sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Neuenkirch, 2011. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Vector Autoregressions: A New Approach Using Central Bank Communication," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201143, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201143
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Bank Communication; European Central Bank; Monetary Policy Shocks; Monetary Policy Transmission; Vector Autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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