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Dynamic Adjustment in US Agriculture under Climate Change

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  • Sansi Yang
  • C. Richard Shumway

Abstract

We construct a stochastic dynamic dual model to investigate the structural adjustment of two aggregate output and three aggregate input categories in US agriculture under stochastic climatic change. More than a century of national annual data (1910–2011) is used in the empirical analysis. No constraints on asset fixity are imposed. Results indicate that, with rational expectations, both output categories as well as all input categories exhibit quasi-fixity in response to market change and stochastic climate change. Crops adjust more than twice as fast as livestock—49% versus 20% of the way toward their long-run equilibrium in one year. Fertilizer adjusts most rapidly toward equilibrium levels (88% in one year), and capital adjusts most slowly (5% in one year). Labor oscillates rather than converging smoothly toward equilibrium; its distance from equilibrium is the same as if it adjusted 59% of the way toward its optimal level in one year. Failing to anticipate climate change dramatically slows the estimated rate of adjustment for two netputs and modestly speeds the rate for two others, thus likely increasing overall adjustment costs. Failing to account for uncertainty in anticipated climate change has little impact on adjustment rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Sansi Yang & C. Richard Shumway, 2016. "Dynamic Adjustment in US Agriculture under Climate Change," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(3), pages 910-924.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:98:y:2016:i:3:p:910-924.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aav042
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sawadgo, Wendiam P. M. & Plastina, Alejandro, 2020. "Drivers of Profit Inefficiency in Iowa Crop Production," ISU General Staff Papers 202001010800001056, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Njuki, E. & Bravo-Ureta, B., 2018. "Accounting for the Impacts of Changing Configurations in Temperature and Precipitation on U.S. Agricultural Productivity," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277140, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Kimhi, A., 2018. "Integrated Micro-Macro Structural Econometric Framework for Assessing Climate-Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Markets," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276972, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Sheng, Yu & Zhao, Shiji & Yang, Sansi, 2021. "Weather shocks, adaptation and agricultural TFP: A cross-region comparison of Australian Broadacre farms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    5. Noah Miller & Jesse Tack & Jason Bergtold, 2021. "The Impacts of Warming Temperatures on US Sorghum Yields and the Potential for Adaptation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1742-1758, October.
    6. Alejandro Plastina & Sergio H. Lence & Ariel Ortiz‐Bobea, 2021. "How weather affects the decomposition of total factor productivity in U.S. agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(2), pages 215-234, March.
    7. Robert G. Chambers & Simone Pieralli, 2020. "The Sources of Measured US Agricultural Productivity Growth: Weather, Technological Change, and Adaptation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1198-1226, August.
    8. Pierre D. Ouattara & Eugene Kouassi & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Oluyele Akinkugbe, 2018. "Climate Uncertainty And Agricultural Soil Conservation Investment Decisions," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 1-23, May.
    9. Robert G. Chambers & Simone Pieralli & Yu Sheng, 2020. "The Millennium Droughts and Australian Agricultural Productivity Performance: A Nonparametric Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(5), pages 1383-1403, October.
    10. Michée A. Lachaud & Boris E. Bravo‐Ureta, 2021. "Agricultural productivity growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: an analysis of climatic effects, catch‐up and convergence," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(1), pages 143-170, January.
    11. Wang, Sun Ling & Rada, Nicholas E. & Williams, Ryan C., 2021. "Potential Climatic Effects on the U.S. Crop Farm Productivity," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 314088, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Kan, Iddo & Reznik, Ami & Kaminski, Jonathan & Kimhi, Ayal, 2023. "The impacts of climate change on cropland allocation, crop production, output prices and social welfare in Israel: A structural econometric framework," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    13. Michee Arnold Lachaud & Boris E. Bravo-Ureta & Carlos E. Ludena, 2017. "Agricultural productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity and climatic effects," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 445-460, August.
    14. Wimmer, Stefan & Stetter, Christian & Schmitt, Jonas & Ringer, Robert, 2022. "Farm-level responses to weather trends," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321221, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    15. Atallah, Shadi S. & Yan, Yizun, 2024. "Maple Syrup Producers' Willingness to Diversify Maple Forests for Increased Resilience," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343860, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Sansi Yang & C. Richard Shumway, 2020. "Knowledge accumulation in US agriculture: research and learning by doing," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 87-105, December.

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