IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/ajagec/v84y2002i1p83-89.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demand Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Trend and Seasonality: The Case of Meat Demand in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Iain Fraser
  • Imad A. Moosa

Abstract

If budget shares have stochastic trend or seasonality or both, then demand equations based on the assumption of deterministic trend and deterministic seasonality will be mis-specified. We test this proposition by estimating a Linearized Almost Ideal (LAI) demand system for meat demand in the United Kingdom using Harvey's structural time series methodology. We demonstrate that the model specification allowing for stochastic trend and deterministic seasonality performs best in terms of diagnostic tests and goodness of fit measures. It is also shown that the model with stochastic trend is better at out-of-sample forecasting. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Iain Fraser & Imad A. Moosa, 2002. "Demand Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Trend and Seasonality: The Case of Meat Demand in the United Kingdom," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 83-89.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:84:y:2002:i:1:p:83-89
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1467-8276.00244
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Penikas, Henry & Savelyeva, Alina, 2013. "Researching and forecasting aggregated consumers’ perception of imported food: Russia and Brazil case studies (1992–2020)," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 32(4), pages 45-70.
    2. Kadochnikov, Pavel A. (Кадочников, Павел А.) & Chentsov, Alexander M. (Ченцов, Александр М.) & Knobel, Alexander Yu. (Кнобель, Александр Ю.), 2019. "Assessment of Import Substitution Due to the Trade Embargo in Russia, 2014–2016 [Оценка Масштабов Импортозамещения В России В 2014–2016 Годах]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 8-33, February.
    3. D. Evans & E. Kula & H. Sezer, 2005. "Regional welfare weights for the UK: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(7), pages 923-937.
    4. Peter BIELIK & Daniela HUPKOVÁ, 2011. "Modelling structural changes in the poultry meat demand - the case of Slovakia," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 57(8), pages 363-369.
    5. Stefan Wirsenius & Fredrik Hedenus & Kristina Mohlin, 2011. "Greenhouse gas taxes on animal food products: rationale, tax scheme and climate mitigation effects," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(1), pages 159-184, September.
    6. Kim, Jae H. & Fraser, Iain & Hyndman, Rob J., 2011. "Improved interval estimation of long run response from a dynamic linear model: A highest density region approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 2477-2489, August.
    7. Sarath Divisekera, 2010. "Economics of Leisure and Non-Leisure Tourist Demand: A Study of Domestic Demand for Australian Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 117-136, March.
    8. Harri, Ardian & Brorsen, B. Wade & Muhammad, Andrew & Anderson, John D., 2010. "Estimating a Demand System with Seasonally Differenced Data," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(2), May.
    9. Mazzocchi, Mario & Lobb, Alexandra E., 2005. "A Latent-Variable Approach to Modelling Multiple and Resurgent Meat Scares in Italy," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24509, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. D. Hupková & P. Bielik & N. Turčeková, 2009. "Structural changes in the beef meat demand in Slovakia and demand elasticity estimation," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 55(8), pages 361-367.
    11. Adhikari, Murali & Paudel, Laxmi & Houston, Jack E. & Paudel, Krishna P. & Bukenya, James O., 2006. "The Impact of Cholesterol Information on Meat Demand: Application of an Updated Cholesterol Index," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 37(2), pages 1-10, July.
    12. Mazzocchi, Mario, 2004. "Food Scares and Demand Recovery Patterns: An Econometric Investigation," 84th Seminar, February 8-11, 2004, Zeist, The Netherlands 24990, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Mario Mazzocchi & Davide Delle Monache & Alexandra Lobb, 2006. "A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(14), pages 1677-1688.
    14. Murali Adhikari & Krishna Paudel & Jack Houstan & James Bukenya, 2007. "Dairy supply response under stochastic trend and seasonality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 887-891.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:84:y:2002:i:1:p:83-89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.