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Returns, Interest Rates, and Inflation: How They Explain Changes in Farmland Values

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  • Charles B. Moss

Abstract

Weather in the Corn Belt and northern plains and the elimination of traditional commodity programs have refocused attention on farmland valuation. This study uses a statistical formulation of information provided by individual regressors to examine the sensitivity of farmland values to changes in inflation, returns on agricultural assets, and the cost of capital. The results indicate that inflation provides the most information on changes in farmland values; however, the regional results indicate that regions that tend to be more sensitive to changes in the return on agricultural assets also rely more heavily on government payments. Copyright 1997, Oxford University Press.

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  • Charles B. Moss, 1997. "Returns, Interest Rates, and Inflation: How They Explain Changes in Farmland Values," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1311-1318.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:79:y:1997:i:4:p:1311-1318
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    Cited by:

    1. Katchova, Ani L. & Dinterman, R., 2018. "Taxation Incidence on Rented Agricultural Land: An Evaluation of Ohio's Current Agricultural Use Value Program," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277266, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Fiechter, Chad & Kuethe, Todd & Zhang, Wendong, 2023. "Information Rigidities and Farmland Value Expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 202306131414240000, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Mishra, Ashok K. & Moss, Charles B. & Erickson, Kenneth W., 2004. "Effect Of Debt Solvency On Farmland Values: A Panel Cointegration Approach," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20261, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Gregory M. Perry & Lindon J. Robison, 2001. "Evaluating the Influence of Personal Relationships on Land Sale Prices: A Case Study in Oregon," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(3), pages 385-398.
    5. Hardin, Erin M. & Bryant, Henry L. & Penson, John B., Jr., 2015. "Farmland Prices: The Return of a Bubble and Opportunities for Hedging," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205630, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Robert Dinterman & Ani L Katchova, 2020. "Property Tax Incidence on Cropland Cash Rent," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(4), pages 739-758, December.
    7. Albulena Basha & Wendong Zhang & Chad Hart, 2021. "The impacts of interest rate changes on US Midwest farmland values," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 81(5), pages 746-766, February.
    8. Ashok Mishra & Charles Moss & Kenneth Erickson, 2004. "Valuing farmland with multiple quasi-fixed inputs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(15), pages 1669-1675.
    9. Gabriel Power & Calum Turvey, 2010. "US rural land value bubbles," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 649-656.
    10. Perry, Gregory M. & Robison, Lindon J., 1999. "Personal Relationships: Do They Influence The Sale Price Of Land?," 1999 Annual Meeting, July 11-14, 1999, Fargo, ND 35685, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    11. Callahan, Scott & Ifft, Jennifer & Michaud, Clayton P., 2022. "The impact of countercyclical farm programs on agricultural land values," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322579, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Plogmann, Jana & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2022. "Farmland sales under returns and price uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    13. Wang, Haoying, 2018. "The Spatial Structure of Farmland Values: A Semiparametric Approach," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 568-591, December.
    14. Henderson, Jason R. & Gloy, Brent A., 2008. "The Impact of Ethanol Plants on Land Values in the Great Plains," 2007 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 4-5, 2007, St. Louis, Missouri 48148, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    15. Moss, Charles B. & Mishra, Ashok K. & Dedah, Cheikhna O., 2009. "Decomposing Agricultural Profitability Using DuPont Expansion and Theil’s Information Approach," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49524, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso & Moss, Charles B., 2008. "State Level Evidence of the Boom/Bust Cycle for Farmland," 2007 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 4-5, 2007, St. Louis, Missouri 48146, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    17. Jason Henderson & Sean Moore, 2005. "The impact of wildlife recreation on farmland values," Research Working Paper RWP 05-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    18. Guiling, Pam & Brorsen, B. Wade & Doye, Damona G., 2007. "How Much Influence Does Recreation Have on Agricultural Land Values?," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34947, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    19. Todd Kuethe & Todd Hubbs & Mitch Morehart, 2014. "Farmland returns and economic conditions: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 129-142, August.
    20. Guiling, Pamela & Doye, Damona & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2009. "Why Has the Price of Pasture Increased Relative to the Price of Cropland?," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2009, pages 1-13.
    21. Ana Claudia Sant’Anna & Ani L. Katchova, 2020. "Determinants of land value volatility in the U.S. Corn Belt," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(37), pages 4058-4072, July.
    22. Giuliani, Gianluca & Rieder, Peter, 2003. "Landwirtschaftlicher Bodenmarkt - Dominanz der nicht-landwirtschaftlichen uber die landwirtschaftlichen Faktoren?," Agrarwirtschaft und Agrarsoziologie\ Economie et Sociologie Rurales, Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 2003(1), pages 1-22.
    23. Henderson, Jason R. & Gloy, Brent A., 2008. "The Impact of Ethanol Plants on Cropland Values in the Great Plains," Working Papers 51080, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    24. Brent A. Gloy & Jason Henderson, 2008. "The impact of ethanol plants on cropland values in the Great Plains," Regional Research Working Paper RRWP 08-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

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