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A Rational Distributed Lag Model of Quarterly Live Cattle Prices

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  • John M. Marsh

Abstract

Quarterly U.S. feeder cattle and fed cattle prices were estimated within a rational distributed lag framework, utilizing nonstochastic difference equations to minimize problems with specification errors in the disturbance structure. The behavior of certain input and output variables in the beef market explained the price variation in each reduced form equation. The results revealed dynamic stability, with a geometric rational lag structure describing fed cattle prices and a polynomial rational lag structure characterizing feeder cattle prices. These dynamics were found to be better than both static-serial correlation and purely autoregressive specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • John M. Marsh, 1983. "A Rational Distributed Lag Model of Quarterly Live Cattle Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(3), pages 539-547.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:65:y:1983:i:3:p:539-547.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1240502
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    Cited by:

    1. Brester, Gary W. & Marsh, John M., 1983. "A Statistical Model Of The Primary And Derived Market Levels In The U.S. Beef Industry," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Grundmeier, Eric (Eric L.), 1989. "Formulation of a carcass cutout value: an alternative wholesale beef pricing method," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000017580, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Greer, R. Clyde & Urick, J.J., 1988. "An Annual Model Of Purebred Breeding Bull Price," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-6, July.
    4. Schultz, Robert W. & Marsh, John M., 1985. "Steer And Heifer Price Differences In The Live Cattle And Carcass Markets," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, July.
    5. Novak, Frank & Eales, James & Munro, Earl, 1993. "Profitability and Risk of Retained Ownership of Beef Calves," Project Report Series 232371, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.

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