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Monthly Steer and Heifer Supply

Author

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  • Glenn Nelson
  • Thomas Spreen

Abstract

The manner in which producers form price expectations is often a destabilizing influence on observed prices. Recent price trends are extrapolated, leading to delayed or accelerated marketings which reinforce the existing price trend. An analysis of monthly steer and heifer slaughter yields this conclusion. The theoretical framework links capital theory with the hypothesis concerning extrapolation of price trends. Apparent conflicts in previous studies of the short-term response of slaughter to prices are clarified and partially resolved by the theoretical and empirical results.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn Nelson & Thomas Spreen, 1978. "Monthly Steer and Heifer Supply," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 60(1), pages 117-125.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:60:y:1978:i:1:p:117-125.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1240167
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oliveira, Ronald A. & O'Connor, Carl W. & Smith, Gary W., 1979. "Short-Run Forecasting Models Of Beef Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, July.
    2. Azzam, Azzeddine & Baker, Maurice & Berry, Ivan & Campbell, John, 1995. "An exploratory bioeconomic model of pesticide use for controlling feedlot-cattle pests," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 503-513.
    3. Guney, Selin, 2015. "An evaluation of price forecasts of the cattle market under structural changes," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205109, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Smith, Rodney B.W. & Gardner, Bruce L., 1989. "Expectations, Futures Prices, and Feedlot Operator Behavior," Working Papers 197622, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    5. Lee, Tsoung-Chao & Seaver, Stanley K., 1980. "Forecasts Of Farm Animal Production In The New England States And In The U.S," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-6, April.
    6. Meilke, Karl D. & Coleman, Jonathan R., 1986. "An Evaluation of the Influence of Exchange Rates on the Canadian Red Meat Sector," Working Papers 244739, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    7. Lamm, R. McFall Jr., 1979. "Dynamics Of Food Price Inflation," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Ziemer, Rod F. & White, Fred C., 1982. "Equilibrium Versus Disequilibrium In The Market For Non-Fed Cattle," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Lee, Tsoung-Chao & Seaver, Stanley K., 1980. "Forecasts Of Farm Animal Production In The New England States And In The U.S," Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-6, April.
    10. Buhr, Brian L. & Kim, Hanho, 1997. "Dynamic adjustment in the US beef market with imports," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 21-34, October.
    11. Probst, Joel Keith, 1982. "Monthly cattle supply and price forecasting models," ISU General Staff Papers 1982010108000018043, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. D. V. Gordon, 1990. "Negative Supply Response And The Role Of Price Expectations In A Two‐Period Model Of Cattle Production," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 184-195, May.
    13. Roberts, Roland K. & Vieth, Gary R. & Nolan, James C., Jr., 1984. "An Analysis Of The Impact Of Energy Price Escalations During The 1970s On Hawaii Beef Production And Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, July.
    14. Smith, Rodney B.W. & Gardner, Bruce L., 1993. "Expectations, Futures Prices, And Feedlot Behavior," Staff Papers 13444, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.

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