IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwedp/201217.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cobweb theorems with production lags and price forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Dufresne, Daniel
  • Vázquez-Abad, Felisa

Abstract

The classical cobweb theorem is extended to include production lags and price forecasts. Price forecasting based on a longer period has a stabilizing effect on prices. Longer production lags do not necessarily lead to unstable prices; very long lags lead to cycles of constant amplitude. The classical cobweb requires elasticity of demand to be greater than that of supply; this is not necessarily the case in a more general setting, price forecasting has a stabilizing effect. Random shocks are also considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Dufresne, Daniel & Vázquez-Abad, Felisa, 2012. "Cobweb theorems with production lags and price forecasting," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201217
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2012-17
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/56489/1/689498551.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xue-Zhong He, 2004. "Dynamics of Beliefs and Learning Under aL-Processes—The Homogeneous Case," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Economic Complexity, pages 363-390, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1968. "Stochastic Stability of Short-Run Market Equilibrium under Variations in Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 82(4), pages 666-681.
    3. William C. Wheaton, 1999. "Real Estate “Cycles”: Some Fundamentals," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 209-230, June.
    4. David J. Smyth, 1973. "Effect of Public Price Forecasts on Market Price Variation: A Stochastic Cobweb Example," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(1), pages 83-88.
    5. Conlisk, John, 1974. "Stability in a Random Coefficient Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 529-533, June.
    6. Chiarella, Carl, 1988. "The cobweb model: Its instability and the onset of chaos," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 377-384, October.
    7. Mordecai Ezekiel, 1938. "The Cobweb Theorem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 52(2), pages 255-280.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dufrfesne, Daniel & Vázquez-Abad, Felisa, 2013. "Cobweb theorems with production lags and price forecasting," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-49.
    2. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Hung, Hing & Zhu, Peiyuan, 2006. "An analysis of the cobweb model with boundedly rational heterogeneous producers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 750-768, December.
    3. Fausto, Cavalli, 2016. "A cobweb model with alternating demand and supply functions," Working Papers 325, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 07 Feb 2016.
    4. Cees Diks & Cars Hommes & Valentyn Panchenko & Roy Weide, 2008. "E&F Chaos: A User Friendly Software Package for Nonlinear Economic Dynamics," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 221-244, September.
    5. Boussard, Jean-Marc, 1996. "When risk generates chaos," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 433-446, May.
    6. Tuinstra, Jan & Wegener, Michael & Westerhoff, Frank, 2014. "Positive welfare effects of trade barriers in a dynamic partial equilibrium model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 246-264.
    7. Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004. "The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August.
    8. Poitras, Geoffrey, 2023. "Cobweb Theory, Market Stability, And Price Expectations," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 137-161, March.
    9. Hommes, Cars H., 1994. "Dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-335, August.
    10. Volker Böhm & Carl Chiarella, 2005. "Mean Variance Preferences, Expectations Formation, And The Dynamics Of Random Asset Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 61-97, January.
    11. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & Van De Velden, Henk, 2007. "Learning In Cobweb Experiments," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 8-33, November.
    12. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    13. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Interacting cobweb markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 461-481, September.
    14. Fausto Cavalli & Ahmad Naimzada & Lucia Parisio, 2021. "Learning in a double-phase cobweb model," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 579-611, December.
    15. Hommes, C.H., 1999. "Cobweb Dynamics under Bounded Rationality," CeNDEF Working Papers 99-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    16. Cars H. Hommes, 2009. "Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets," Chapters, in: J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (ed.), Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Dieci, Roberto & Mignot, Sarah & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Production delays, technology choice and cyclical cobweb dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    18. Damjanovic, Tatiana & Girdėnas, Šarūnas & Liu, Keqing, 2015. "Stationarity of econometric learning with bounded memory and a predicted state variable," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 93-96.
    19. Kristian Lindgren & Emma Jonson & Liv Lundberg, 2015. "Projection Of A Heterogenous Agent-Based Production Economy Model To A Closed Dynamics Of Aggregate Variables," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(05n06), pages 1-19, August.
    20. Tomek, William G. & Robinson, Kenneth L., 1977. "PART V. Agricultural Price Analysis and Outlook," AAEA Monographs, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 337217, january.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cobweb theorem; production lags; stable markets; price fluctuations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201217. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.