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The Effect of Weather on Agricultural Output: A Look at Methodology

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  • Lawrence H. Shaw

Abstract

This article discusses methodological problems involved in attempting to measure the impact of weather on crop yields. The weather index approach is advanced as a more appropriate analytical technique than multiple regression analysis. Attempts to analyze the role of improvements in technology have been greatly hampered by the year-to-year fluctuations in yields due to weather. Several techniques have been used to assess the impact of weather on agricultural output. The multiple regression approach, most suited to studies at the micro-level of crop yield-weather relationships, has been used on an aggregate level as well. The difficulties involved in specifying appropriate variables and functional relationships as well as problems of aggregation limit its usefulness at this level.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence H. Shaw, 1964. "The Effect of Weather on Agricultural Output: A Look at Methodology," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 46(1), pages 218-230.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:46:y:1964:i:1:p:218-230.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1236485
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    Cited by:

    1. Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh & Phanindra Goyari, 2018. "Statistical Modeling of Crop-Weather Relationship in India: A Survey on Evolutionary Trend of Methodologies," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 15(1), pages 42-60, June.
    2. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, 2021. "Climate, Agriculture and Food," Papers 2105.12044, arXiv.org.
    3. Podbury, Troy & Sheales, Terry & Hussain, Intizar & Fisher, Brian S., 1998. "Use of El Nino climate forecasts in Australia," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 269839, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Mekbib G. Haile & Tesfamicheal Wossen & Kindie Tesfaye & Joachim von Braun, 2017. "Impact of Climate Change, Weather Extremes, and Price Risk on Global Food Supply," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 55-75, June.
    5. Mjelde, James W. & Hollinger, Steven E., 1987. "Development of Climate Indices for Application in Empirical Crop Production Studies," Staff Paper Series 257982, Texas A&M University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    6. Tannura, Michael A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2008. "Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 37501, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    7. Paltasingh, Kirtti Ranjan & Goyari, Phanindra & Mishra, R.K., 2012. "Measuring Weather Impact on Crop Yield Using Aridity Index: Evidence from Odisha," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 25(2).
    8. Borja-Vega, Christian & de la Fuente, Alejandro, 2013. "Municipal vulnerability to climate change and climate related events in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6417, The World Bank.
    9. Wang, Sun Ling & Olver, Ryan & Bonin, Daniel & Dodson, Laura L. & Williams, Ryan C., 2022. "Climate change, technology adoption, and field crop farm productivity in the United States: Short-term vs. long-term," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322595, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Pope, C. Arden, III, 1981. "The dynamics of crop yields in the U. S. Corn Belt as effected by weather and technological progress," ISU General Staff Papers 198101010800008463, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Weaver, Robert D., 1980. "Measurement and Forecasting of Agricultural Productivity," Staff Paper Series 256838, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology.
    12. Michler, Jeffrey & Shively, Gerald, 2016. "Agricultural Production, Weather Variability, and Technical Change: 40 Years of Evidence from Indi," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236342, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Shaw, Lawrence H. & Durost, Donald D., 1965. "The Effect of Weather and Technology on Corn Yields in the Corn Belt, 1929-62," Agricultural Economic Reports 307297, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    14. Alain McLaren, 2015. "Asymmetry in Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 415-433, May.
    15. Haile, Mekbib G. & Wossen, Tesfamichael, 2016. "Impacts of climate and price changes on global food production," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246374, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).

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