IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/onb/oenbmp/y2020iq1-q2-20b10.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Langfristige Determinanten der österreichischen Inflation – die Rolle des EU-Beitritts

Author

Listed:

Abstract

In dieser Studie beschäftigen wir uns mit der Frage, ob und wie sich der Inflationsprozess in Österreich durch die Veränderungen der wirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen in den letzten Jahrzehnten, wie etwa aufgrund des EU-Beitritts, der Bildung der Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion (WWU), der Globalisierung sowie der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise, verändert hat. Zu diesem Zweck werden verschiedene Spezifikationen einer erweiterten Phillips-Kurve zuerst auf Strukturbrüche getestet und anschließend für verschiedene Subperioden sowie mit zeitvariablen Koeffizienten unter Verwendung von statistischen Glättungstechniken geschätzt. Dabei werden drei signifikante Strukturbrüche gefunden: einer Mitte der 1980er-Jahre, den wir mit dem Beginn der Great Moderation – einer Phase geringer makroökonomischer Volatilität – in Verbindung bringen, ein weiterer im Jahr 1995, der mit dem EU-Beitritt Österreichs zusammenfällt und ein dritter im Jahr 2000, der den Beginn der WWU markiert. Die Subperioden- und zeitvariablen Koeffizientenschätzungen ergeben, dass es in Österreich die meiste Zeit in den vergangenen 40 Jahren eine stabile Phillips-Kurve gab. Es bestand somit ein positiver Zusammenhang zwischen Inflations- und Konjunkturentwicklung, der aber in den 1990er-Jahren vorübergehend schwächer wurde. In dieser Phase dürften externe Faktoren, wie der EU-Beitritt, die Errichtung der WWU und die Globalisierung einen stärkeren Einfluss auf die österreichische Inflation bekommen haben. Interessanterweise hatte die Geldpolitik erst ab dem Beginn der WWU einen messbaren Einfluss auf die laufende Inflationsentwicklung, was darauf hindeutet, dass die Transmission der stabilitätsorientierten Geldpolitik des Eurosystems in Österreich gut funktioniert.

Suggested Citation

  • Teresa Messner & Fabio Rumler, 2020. "Langfristige Determinanten der österreichischen Inflation – die Rolle des EU-Beitritts," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1-Q2/20, pages 169-179.
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2020:i:q1-q2/20:b:10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:48cce2e4-e343-47e3-afcb-b49e0204b096/13_MOP_Q1_2_20_Langfristige-Determinanten.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moretti, Laura & Onorante, Luca & Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "Phillips curves in the euro area," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Terry J. Fitzgerald & Brian Holtemeyer & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2013. "Is there a stable Phillips Curve after all?," Economic Policy Paper 13-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56.
    5. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
    6. Goodfriend, Marvin & King, Robert G., 2005. "The incredible Volcker disinflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 981-1015, July.
    7. Ernst Glatzer & Ernest Gnan & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2006. "Globalization, Import Prices and Producer Prices in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 24-43.
    8. Ernest Gnan & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2006. "Globalization, Inflation and Monetary Policy," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 37-54.
    9. Hetzel,Robert L., 2008. "The Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521881326, October.
    10. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
    11. Robert E. Hall, 2013. "The routes into and out of the zero lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-35.
    12. Hindrayanto, Irma & Samarina, Anna & Stanga, Irina M., 2019. "Is the Phillips curve still alive? Evidence from the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 149-152.
    13. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    14. Jerome H. Powell, 2018. "Monetary policy and risk management at a time of low inflation and low unemployment," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 173-183, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 199-255.
    2. Hendrickson, Joshua R., 2012. "An overhaul of Federal Reserve doctrine: Nominal income and the Great Moderation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 304-317.
    3. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    4. João Valle e Azevedo, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation (and the Business Cycle?) with Monetary Aggregates," Working Papers w201024, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Dennis Bonam & Gabriele Galati & Irma Hindrayanto & Marco Hoeberichts & Anna Samarina & Irina Stanga, 2019. "Inflation in the euro area since the Global Financial Crisis," DNB Occasional Studies 1703, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Cesaroni, Tatiana & Maccini, Louis & Malgarini, Marco, 2011. "Business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour: New evidence for the Euro area," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 12-24, September.
    7. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2005. "Declining output volatility in Germany: impulses, propagation, and the role of monetary policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2445-2457.
    8. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 71-84, July.
    9. Ćorić, Bruno & Pugh, Geoff, 2013. "Foreign direct investment and output growth volatility: A worldwide analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 260-271.
    10. Kim, Seong-Hoon & Moon, Seongman & Velasco, Carlos, 2014. "Delayed Overshooting: It's an 80s Puzzle," Staff Papers 14-3, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
    11. Mariam Camarero & Juan Sapena & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Modelling Time-Varying Parameters in Panel Data State-Space Frameworks: An Application to the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 87-114, June.
    12. van Dijk, Dick & Hans Franses, Philip & Peter Boswijk, H., 2007. "Absorption of shocks in nonlinear autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4206-4226, May.
    13. Pablo Burriel & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "MEDEA: a DSGE model for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 175-243, March.
    14. Hollander, Hylton & Liu, Guangling, 2016. "Credit spread variability in the U.S. business cycle: The Great Moderation versus the Great Recession," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 37-52.
    15. Stephen G Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2005. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.),The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    16. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
    17. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 2013. "Bretton Woods and the Great Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 449-489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Blot, Christophe & Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien & Saraceno, Francesco, 2015. "Assessing the link between price and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 71-88.
    19. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Monetary Policy Effect on the Business Cycle Fluctuations: Output vs. Index Measures of the Cycle," Macroeconomics 0409015, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2004.
    20. Demetrescu, Matei & Salish, Nazarii, 2024. "(Structural) VAR models with ignored changes in mean and volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 840-854.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Langfristige Inflationsdeterminanten; Österreich; Phillips-Kurven-Schätzung; Schätzung mit zeitvariablen Koeffizienten;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2020:i:q1-q2/20:b:10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rita Glaser-Schwarz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oenbbat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.