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Taxing the Potency of Sin Goods: Evidence from Recreational Cannabis and Liquor Markets

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  • Benjamin Hansen
  • Keaton Miller
  • Boyoung Seo
  • Caroline Weber

Abstract

Cannabis is legal to purchase for over 28 percent of U.S. citizens. A central argument used in public campaigns for cannabis legalization has focused on the tax revenue that legal cannabis markets could generate. Recently, some policy makers and politicians have debated switching from traditional ad valorem taxes to taxes on potency, aiming to reduce the potential externalities associated with highly potent products. In this paper, we construct a theoretical model to predict the implications of a potency-based tax in an environment with market power. We then estimate the demand for cannabis potency based on administrative records of sales and potency from Washington state. We finish by conducting counterfactual analyses comparing revenue and potency outcomes from potency-based taxes versus the traditional price-based taxes.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Hansen & Keaton Miller & Boyoung Seo & Caroline Weber, 2020. "Taxing the Potency of Sin Goods: Evidence from Recreational Cannabis and Liquor Markets," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(2), pages 511-544, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:73:y:2020:i:2:p:511-544
    DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2020.2.07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brett Hollenbeck & Renato Zaterka Giroldo, 2022. "Winning Big: Scale and Success in Retail Entrepreneurship," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(2), pages 271-293, March.
    2. Hansen, Benjamin & Miller, Keaton & Weber, Caroline, 2020. "Federalism, partial prohibition, and cross-border sales: Evidence from recreational marijuana," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    3. Hansen, Benjamin & Miller, Keaton & Weber, Caroline, 2022. "Vertical integration and production inefficiency in the presence of a gross receipts tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    4. Paul Calcott & Vladimir Petkov, 2023. "Choosing between imperfect proxies for a corrective tax," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 25(2), pages 245-275, April.
    5. Brett Hollenbeck & Kosuke Uetake, 2021. "Taxation and market power in the legal marijuana industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 52(3), pages 559-595, September.

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