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Overview

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Abstract

In our Summer forecast for the UK economy GDP grows by 6.8 per cent in 2021, an upward revision of 1.1 percentage points since May's Spring Outlook, and 5.3 per cent in 2022. The latest data suggest that - while headline growth and business optimism are strong - the recovery is not yet broad-based, being principally driven by the re-opening of a few sectors. Output is expected to return to its pre-Covid level in the first quarter of 2022.

Suggested Citation

  • Niesr, 2021. "Overview," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 3, pages 5-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesra:i:3:y:2021:p:5-36
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    File URL: https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/UK-outlook-Summer-2021_0-5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christina Beatty & Stephen Fothergill, 2004. "Economic Change and the Labour Market in Britain's Seaside Towns," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 459-478.
    2. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Lisauskaite, Elena & Pabst, Adrian, 2021. "UK regional outlook," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 0(2), pages 42-57.
    3. David G. Blanchflower & Adam S. Posen, 2014. "Wages and Labor Market Slack: Making the Dual Mandate Operational (DRAFT)," Policy Briefs PB14-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    4. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Pabst, Adrian & Mosley, Max & Szendrei, Tibor, 2022. "UK Regional Outlook: Autumn 2021," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 0(5 Winter), pages 29-40.
    5. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Lisauskaite, Elena & Pabst, Adrian, 2021. "UK regional outlook," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 0(2), pages 42-57, May.
    6. David G. Blanchflower & Adam S. Posen, 2014. "Wages and Labor Market Slack: Making the Dual Mandate Operational," Working Paper Series WP14-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Lisauskaite, Elena, 2021. "UK regional outlook," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 0(1), pages 24-33, February.
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