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Macroeconomic Influence on the Nepalese Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Mukti Bahadur Khatri

    (Trichandra Multiple Campus, TU, Ghantaghar, Nepal)

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic relationship among the stock market and macroeconomic factors such as nominal domestic variables (inflation, money supply, and interest rate), real economic activity (gross domestic product) and foreign variable (exchange rate and foreign direct investment) of Nepal. It has used Johansen and Juselius (1990) method of multivariate cointegration for the period Mid-July 1994 to Mid-July 2015. The finding of this study shows that the stock prices are positively and significantly related to money supply. Real economic activity and interest rate have insignificant and negative relationship with the stock prices. Similarly, foreign direct investment, inflation (CPI) and exchange rate with US dollar have a positive and insignificant relationship with the Nepalese stock market. Accordingly, the VEC estimates suggest that there is no significant effect of macroeconomic variables to the Nepalese stock price in the short run. In general, the presence of cointegration and causality suggest that Nepalese stock market is not efficient in both the short run and the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Mukti Bahadur Khatri, 2019. "Macroeconomic Influence on the Nepalese Stock Market," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 31(1), pages 47-64, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:31:y:2019:i:1:p:47
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Market; Macroeconomic Variables; Cointegration; VEC Estimates; Causality Test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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