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Financial Statement Analysis and Earnings Forecasting

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  • Monahan, Steven J.

Abstract

I synthesize and discuss academic research on financial statement analysis and earnings forecasting. I begin by discussing analytical and empirical evidence that shows that earnings, not dividends or free cash flows, are the payoffs that investors forecast when estimating value. This result is fundamental and it provides clear motivation for studying earnings forecasting and the role that historical accounting numbers play in the earnings-forecasting process. I then provide a detailed discussion of the research design choices that are made when developing and evaluating an earnings-forecasting approach. I describe the tradeoffs involved when making these choices and I review the extant empirical literature. An overarching theme of this discussion is that there are substantial research opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Monahan, Steven J., 2018. "Financial Statement Analysis and Earnings Forecasting," Foundations and Trends(R) in Accounting, now publishers, vol. 12(2), pages 105-215, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:fntacc:1400000036
    DOI: 10.1561/1400000036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Watts, Rl & Leftwich, Rw, 1977. "Time-Series Of Annual Accounting Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 253-271.
    2. Ohlson, James & Gao, Zhan, 2006. "Earnings, Earnings Growth and Value," Foundations and Trends(R) in Accounting, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-70, August.
    3. Ou, Ja, 1990. "The Information-Content Of Nonearnings Accounting Numbers As Earnings Predictors," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 144-163.
    4. Stephen H. Penman & Theodore Sougiannis, 1998. "A Comparison of Dividend, Cash Flow, and Earnings Approaches to Equity Valuation," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(3), pages 343-383, September.
    5. Stephen Penman, 2016. "Valuation: Accounting for Risk and the Expected Return," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 52(1), pages 106-130, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ndatenyirigira Joseph, 2023. "Financial Statements Analysis and Financial Performance of Commercial Banks in Rwanda," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(3), pages 807-824, March.
    2. Kapons, Martin, 2021. "Essays on capital markets research in accounting," Other publications TiSEM 800d189b-8628-448a-9d6f-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Dichev, Ilia & Huang, Xinyi & Lee, Donald K.K & Zhao, Jianxin, 2023. "You have a point - but a point is not enough: The case for distributional forecasts of earnings," SocArXiv 4b2y8, Center for Open Science.
    4. Mark Wallis, 2023. "Why Do Analysts use a Zero Forecast for Other Comprehensive Income?," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 59(4), pages 1074-1115, December.
    5. Xi Chen & Yang Ha (Tony) Cho & Yiwei Dou & Baruch Lev, 2022. "Predicting Future Earnings Changes Using Machine Learning and Detailed Financial Data," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 467-515, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate governance; Managerial behavior; Stakeholders; Accounting research;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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