Author
Listed:
- Nils Bochow
(UiT – The Arctic University of Norway
University of Copenhagen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
- Anna Poltronieri
(UiT – The Arctic University of Norway)
- Alexander Robinson
(Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Complutense University of Madrid)
- Marisa Montoya
(Complutense University of Madrid
Instituto de Geociencias, CSIC-UCM)
- Martin Rypdal
(UiT – The Arctic University of Norway)
- Niklas Boers
(Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Technical University of Munich
University of Exeter)
Abstract
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) in response to anthropogenic global warming poses a severe threat in terms of global sea-level rise (SLR)1. Modelling and palaeoclimate evidence suggest that rapidly increasing temperatures in the Arctic can trigger positive feedback mechanisms for the GrIS, leading to self-sustained melting2–4, and the GrIS has been shown to permit several stable states5. Critical transitions are expected when the global mean temperature (GMT) crosses specific thresholds, with substantial hysteresis between the stable states6. Here we use two independent ice-sheet models to investigate the impact of different overshoot scenarios with varying peak and convergence temperatures for a broad range of warming and subsequent cooling rates. Our results show that the maximum GMT and the time span of overshooting given GMT targets are critical in determining GrIS stability. We find a threshold GMT between 1.7 °C and 2.3 °C above preindustrial levels for an abrupt ice-sheet loss. GrIS loss can be substantially mitigated, even for maximum GMTs of 6 °C or more above preindustrial levels, if the GMT is subsequently reduced to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels within a few centuries. However, our results also show that even temporarily overshooting the temperature threshold, without a transition to a new ice-sheet state, still leads to a peak in SLR of up to several metres.
Suggested Citation
Nils Bochow & Anna Poltronieri & Alexander Robinson & Marisa Montoya & Martin Rypdal & Niklas Boers, 2023.
"Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet,"
Nature, Nature, vol. 622(7983), pages 528-536, October.
Handle:
RePEc:nat:nature:v:622:y:2023:i:7983:d:10.1038_s41586-023-06503-9
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:622:y:2023:i:7983:d:10.1038_s41586-023-06503-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through
the various RePEc services.