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Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet

Author

Listed:
  • Nils Bochow

    (UiT – The Arctic University of Norway
    University of Copenhagen
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Anna Poltronieri

    (UiT – The Arctic University of Norway)

  • Alexander Robinson

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
    Complutense University of Madrid)

  • Marisa Montoya

    (Complutense University of Madrid
    Instituto de Geociencias, CSIC-UCM)

  • Martin Rypdal

    (UiT – The Arctic University of Norway)

  • Niklas Boers

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Technical University of Munich
    University of Exeter)

Abstract

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) in response to anthropogenic global warming poses a severe threat in terms of global sea-level rise (SLR)1. Modelling and palaeoclimate evidence suggest that rapidly increasing temperatures in the Arctic can trigger positive feedback mechanisms for the GrIS, leading to self-sustained melting2–4, and the GrIS has been shown to permit several stable states5. Critical transitions are expected when the global mean temperature (GMT) crosses specific thresholds, with substantial hysteresis between the stable states6. Here we use two independent ice-sheet models to investigate the impact of different overshoot scenarios with varying peak and convergence temperatures for a broad range of warming and subsequent cooling rates. Our results show that the maximum GMT and the time span of overshooting given GMT targets are critical in determining GrIS stability. We find a threshold GMT between 1.7 °C and 2.3 °C above preindustrial levels for an abrupt ice-sheet loss. GrIS loss can be substantially mitigated, even for maximum GMTs of 6 °C or more above preindustrial levels, if the GMT is subsequently reduced to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels within a few centuries. However, our results also show that even temporarily overshooting the temperature threshold, without a transition to a new ice-sheet state, still leads to a peak in SLR of up to several metres.

Suggested Citation

  • Nils Bochow & Anna Poltronieri & Alexander Robinson & Marisa Montoya & Martin Rypdal & Niklas Boers, 2023. "Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet," Nature, Nature, vol. 622(7983), pages 528-536, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:622:y:2023:i:7983:d:10.1038_s41586-023-06503-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Tessa Möller & Annika Ernest Högner & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Samuel Bien & Niklas H. Kitzmann & Robin D. Lamboll & Joeri Rogelj & Jonathan F. Donges & Johan Rockström & Nico Wunderling, 2024. "Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Abhik Chakraborty, 2024. "Emplacing Ecological Grief in Last Chance Tourism: Cryospheric Change and Travel in the Arctic," Tourism and Hospitality, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-15, June.

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