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Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence

Author

Listed:
  • Kate Marvel

    (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
    Columbia University)

  • Benjamin I. Cook

    (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

  • Céline J. W. Bonfils

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • Paul J. Durack

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • Jason E. Smerdon

    (Columbia University)

  • A. Park Williams

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

Although anthropogenic climate change is expected to have caused large shifts in temperature and rainfall, the detection of human influence on global drought has been complicated by large internal variability and the brevity of observational records. Here we address these challenges using reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index obtained with data from tree rings that span the past millennium. We show that three distinct periods are identifiable in climate models, observations and reconstructions during the twentieth century. In recent decades (1981 to present), the signal of greenhouse gas forcing is present but not yet detectable at high confidence. Observations and reconstructions differ significantly from an expected pattern of greenhouse gas forcing around mid-century (1950–1975), coinciding with a global increase in aerosol forcing. In the first half of the century (1900–1949), however, a signal of greenhouse-gas-forced change is robustly detectable. Multiple observational datasets and reconstructions using data from tree rings confirm that human activities were probably affecting the worldwide risk of droughts as early as the beginning of the twentieth century.

Suggested Citation

  • Kate Marvel & Benjamin I. Cook & Céline J. W. Bonfils & Paul J. Durack & Jason E. Smerdon & A. Park Williams, 2019. "Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence," Nature, Nature, vol. 569(7754), pages 59-65, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:569:y:2019:i:7754:d:10.1038_s41586-019-1149-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1149-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Scott, 2021. "Sustainable Tourism and the Grand Challenge of Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Xue Yang & Shaochun Huang, 2023. "Attribution assessment of hydrological trends and extremes to climate change for Northern high latitude catchments in Norway," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-25, October.
    3. Mohammad Ahsan Uddin & ASM Maksud Kamal & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung, 2020. "Volatility in Rainfall and Predictability of Droughts in Northwest Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-20, November.
    4. Kelly F. Austin & Mark D. Noble & Virginia Kuulei Berndt, 2021. "Drying Climates and Gendered Suffering: Links Between Drought, Food Insecurity, and Women’s HIV in Less-Developed Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 313-334, February.
    5. Ivan C. Hanigan & Timothy B. Chaston, 2022. "Climate Change, Drought and Rural Suicide in New South Wales, Australia: Future Impact Scenario Projections to 2099," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-12, June.
    6. Luong, Tuan Anh & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2024. "Aging in the Air: The Impact of Carbon Emissions on Health-Related Quality of Life," TSE Working Papers 24-1549, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    7. Kiyoumars Roushangar & Roghayeh Ghasempour & Vahid Nourani, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Droughts Over Different Climate Regions Using Hybrid Clustering Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 473-488, January.
    8. Yaoping Wang & Jiafu Mao & Forrest M. Hoffman & Céline J. W. Bonfils & Hervé Douville & Mingzhou Jin & Peter E. Thornton & Daniel M. Ricciuto & Xiaoying Shi & Haishan Chen & Stan D. Wullschleger & Shi, 2022. "Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Antonio Ventriglio, 2023. "Geopolitical determinants of mental health: Towards a global perspective," International Journal of Social Psychiatry, , vol. 69(1), pages 229-230, February.
    10. Nicolas Misailidis Stríkis & Plácido Fabrício Silva Melo Buarque & Francisco William Cruz & Juan Pablo Bernal & Mathias Vuille & Ernesto Tejedor & Matheus Simões Santos & Marília Harumi Shimizu & Ange, 2024. "Modern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Kiyoumars Roushangar & Roghayeh Ghasempour & Farhad Alizadeh, 2022. "Uncertainty Assessment of the Integrated Hybrid Data Processing Techniques for Short to Long Term Drought Forecasting in Different Climate Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(1), pages 273-296, January.

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