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Attributable human-induced changes in the magnitude of flooding in the Houston, Texas region during Hurricane Harvey

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  • Michael Wehner

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Christopher Sampson

    (Fathom)

Abstract

The human influence on precipitation during tropical cyclones due to the global warming is now well documented in the literature. Several studies have found increases in Hurricane Harvey’s total precipitation over the Greater Houston area ranging from the Clausius-Clapeyron limit of 7% to as much as 38% locally. Here we use a hydraulic model to translate these attribution statements about precipitation to statements about the resultant flooding and associated damages. We find that while the attributable increase in the total volume of flood waters is the same as the attributable increase in precipitation, the attributable increase in the total area of the flood is less. However, we also find that in the most heavily flooded parts of Houston, the local attributable increases in flood area and volume are substantially larger than the increase in total precipitation. The results of this storyline attribution analysis of the Houston flood area are used to make an intuitive best estimate of the cost of Hurricane Harvey attributable to anthropogenic global warming as thirteen billion US dollars.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Wehner & Christopher Sampson, 2021. "Attributable human-induced changes in the magnitude of flooding in the Houston, Texas region during Hurricane Harvey," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-13, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:166:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03114-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03114-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christina M. Patricola & Michael F. Wehner, 2018. "Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events," Nature, Nature, vol. 563(7731), pages 339-346, November.
    2. David J. Frame & Michael F. Wehner & Ilan Noy & Suzanne M. Rosier, 2020. "The economic costs of Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 271-281, May.
    3. Nathalie Schaller & Alison L. Kay & Rob Lamb & Neil R. Massey & Geert Jan van Oldenborgh & Friederike E. L. Otto & Sarah N. Sparrow & Robert Vautard & Pascal Yiou & Ian Ashpole & Andy Bowery & Susan M, 2016. "Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 627-634, June.
    4. Wei Zhang & Gabriele Villarini & Gabriel A. Vecchi & James A. Smith, 2018. "Urbanization exacerbated the rainfall and flooding caused by hurricane Harvey in Houston," Nature, Nature, vol. 563(7731), pages 384-388, November.
    5. James P. Kossin, 2018. "A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed," Nature, Nature, vol. 558(7708), pages 104-107, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick T. Brown, 2023. "When the fraction of attributable risk does not inform the impact associated with anthropogenic climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-11, August.
    2. Kevin T. Smiley & Ilan Noy & Michael F. Wehner & Dave Frame & Christopher C. Sampson & Oliver E. J. Wing, 2022. "Social inequalities in climate change-attributed impacts of Hurricane Harvey," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Luke J. Harrington & Kristie L. Ebi & David J. Frame & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2022. "Integrating attribution with adaptation for unprecedented future heatwaves," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-7, May.
    4. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Gómez, Santiago & Noy, Ilan & Strobl, Eric, 2024. "Climate Change, Hurricanes, and Sovereign Debt in the Caribbean Basin," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13351, Inter-American Development Bank.

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