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Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • E. M. Wolkovich

    (University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive 0116, La Jolla, California 92093, USA)

  • B. I. Cook

    (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
    Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory)

  • J. M. Allen

    (University of Connecticut)

  • T. M. Crimmins

    (USA National Phenology Network, 1955 East Sixth Street)

  • J. L. Betancourt

    (US Geological Survey, 1955 East Sixth Street)

  • S. E. Travers

    (North Dakota State University)

  • S. Pau

    (National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, California 93101, USA)

  • J. Regetz

    (National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, California 93101, USA)

  • T. J. Davies

    (McGill University, 1205 Avenue Docteur Penfield, Montreal, Quebec H3A 1B1, Canada)

  • N. J. B. Kraft

    (Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, 6270 University Boulevard, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada
    University of Maryland, College Park)

  • T. R. Ault

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000)

  • K. Bolmgren

    (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Swedish National Phenology Network, Asa, Unit for Field-based Forest Research, SE-36030 Lammhult, Sweden
    Theoretical Population Ecology and Evolution, Lund University, SE-22362 Lund, Sweden)

  • S. J. Mazer

    (Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California Santa Barbara)

  • G. J. McCabe

    (US Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, MS 412, Denver, Colorado 80225, USA)

  • B. J. McGill

    (School of Biology and Ecology & Sustainability Solutions Initiative, University of Maine)

  • C. Parmesan

    (Integrative Biology, University of Texas, 1 University Station C0930
    Marine Sciences Institute, A425 Portland Square, Drake Circus, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, Devon PL4 8AA, UK)

  • N. Salamin

    (University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
    Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Quartier Sorge, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland)

  • M. D. Schwartz

    (Bolton 410, PO Box 413, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

  • E. E. Cleland

    (University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive 0116, La Jolla, California 92093, USA)

Abstract

Advances in plant flowering and leafing times in response to warming are underpredicted by experimental warming studies.

Suggested Citation

  • E. M. Wolkovich & B. I. Cook & J. M. Allen & T. M. Crimmins & J. L. Betancourt & S. E. Travers & S. Pau & J. Regetz & T. J. Davies & N. J. B. Kraft & T. R. Ault & K. Bolmgren & S. J. Mazer & G. J. McC, 2012. "Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 485(7399), pages 494-497, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:485:y:2012:i:7399:d:10.1038_nature11014
    DOI: 10.1038/nature11014
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Faisal Shahzad & Awudu Abdulai & Gazali Issahaku, 2021. "Adaptation Implications of Climate-Smart Agriculture in Rural Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-18, October.
    2. Carlos Sanz-Lazaro, 2019. "A Framework to Advance the Understanding of the Ecological Effects of Extreme Climate Events," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-18, October.
    3. Olsson, Cecilia & Jönsson, Anna Maria, 2015. "A model framework for tree leaf colouring in Europe," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 316(C), pages 41-51.
    4. Minkyung Kim & Sojeong Lee & Hakyung Lee & Sangdon Lee, 2021. "Phenological Response in the Trophic Levels to Climate Change in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-12, January.
    5. Yuhao Jiang & Baolin Li & Yecheng Yuan & Qingling Sun & Tao Zhang & Yan Liu & Ying Li & Rui Li & Fei Li, 2021. "Trends in Flowering Phenology of Herbaceous Plants and Its Response to Precipitation and Snow Cover on the Qinghai—Tibetan Plateau from 1983 to 2017," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-21, July.
    6. Liam D. Bailey & Martijn Pol & Frank Adriaensen & Aneta Arct & Emilio Barba & Paul E. Bellamy & Suzanne Bonamour & Jean-Charles Bouvier & Malcolm D. Burgess & Anne Charmantier & Camillo Cusimano & Bla, 2022. "Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Olsson, Cecilia & Bolmgren, Kjell & Lindström, Johan & Jönsson, Anna Maria, 2013. "Performance of tree phenology models along a bioclimatic gradient in Sweden," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 266(C), pages 103-117.
    8. Xiuping Yi & Ling Zou & Zigeng Niu & Daoyang Jiang & Qian Cao, 2022. "Multi-Model Ensemble Projections of Winter Extreme Temperature Events on the Chinese Mainland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-21, May.
    9. Maria Girip & Daniela Mărăcine & Lăcrămioara Dracea, 2020. "Environmental Impact of Conventional Agriculture," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 372-381, August.
    10. Fabio Arnaldo Pomar Avalos & Michele Duarte de Menezes & Fausto Weimar Acerbi Júnior & Nilton Curi & Junior Cesar Avanzi & Marx Leandro Naves Silva, 2024. "Evaluation of Synthetic-Temporal Imagery as an Environmental Covariate for Digital Soil Mapping: A Case Study in Soils under Tropical Pastures," Resources, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, February.
    11. Guanjie Jiao & Xiawei Shentu & Xiaochen Zhu & Wenbo Song & Yujia Song & Kexuan Yang, 2022. "Utility of Deep Learning Algorithms in Initial Flowering Period Prediction Models," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, December.
    12. Konrad Prandecki & Edyta Gajos, 2018. "Reductin of greenhouse gases emission and sustainability: The multi-criteria approach," International Conference on Competitiveness of Agro-food and Environmental Economy Proceedings, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 7, pages 46-54.

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