IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v266y2013icp103-117.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Performance of tree phenology models along a bioclimatic gradient in Sweden

Author

Listed:
  • Olsson, Cecilia
  • Bolmgren, Kjell
  • Lindström, Johan
  • Jönsson, Anna Maria

Abstract

Tree phenology has been recognized as an important indicator of climate change, and a wide range of budburst models have been developed. The models differ in temperature sensitivity, and the choice of model can therefore influence the result of climate impact assessments. In this study we compared the ability of 15 models to simulate budburst of the main forest tree species in Sweden. Records on the timing of budburst, available for 1873–1918 and 1966–2011, were used for model evaluation. The predefined models, having different chilling, competence and forcing modules, represented different hypothesis on temperature impact on tree phenology. We extracted the model-specific forcing units accumulated by the observed day of budburst, and tested for covariation with bio-climatic gradients. For all tree species, most models indicated a negative relation between forcing requirement and latitude, which may indicate provenance specific adaptations. The thermal continentality index, which in Sweden is highly correlated with latitude, did provide some additional explanation for the period of 1873–1918 but not for the period of 1966–2011. For most model- and tree species combinations, temperature anomalies explain a significant part of the variability in forcing units accumulated at day of budburst. This indicates that the budburst models were not able to fully track the response to inter-annual variations in temperature conditions, probably due to difficulties in capturing species and provenance specific chilling requirement, day length response and impact of spring backlashes.

Suggested Citation

  • Olsson, Cecilia & Bolmgren, Kjell & Lindström, Johan & Jönsson, Anna Maria, 2013. "Performance of tree phenology models along a bioclimatic gradient in Sweden," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 266(C), pages 103-117.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:266:y:2013:i:c:p:103-117
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.06.026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380013003219
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.06.026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. E. M. Wolkovich & B. I. Cook & J. M. Allen & T. M. Crimmins & J. L. Betancourt & S. E. Travers & S. Pau & J. Regetz & T. J. Davies & N. J. B. Kraft & T. R. Ault & K. Bolmgren & S. J. Mazer & G. J. McC, 2012. "Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 485(7399), pages 494-497, May.
    2. Rammig, A. & Jönsson, A.M. & Hickler, T. & Smith, B. & Bärring, L. & Sykes, M.T., 2010. "Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 303-313.
    3. Fu, Yongshuo H. & Campioli, Matteo & Van Oijen, Marcel & Deckmyn, Gaby & Janssens, Ivan A., 2012. "Bayesian comparison of six different temperature-based budburst models for four temperate tree species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 92-100.
    4. Annette Menzel & Peter Fabian, 1999. "Growing season extended in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6721), pages 659-659, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olsson, Cecilia & Jönsson, Anna Maria, 2015. "A model framework for tree leaf colouring in Europe," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 316(C), pages 41-51.
    2. Bregaglio, Simone & Orlando, Francesca & Forni, Emanuela & De Gregorio, Tommaso & Falzoi, Simone & Boni, Chiara & Pisetta, Michele & Confalonieri, Roberto, 2016. "Development and evaluation of new modelling solutions to simulate hazelnut (Corylus avellana L.) growth and development," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 329(C), pages 86-99.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Sanz-Lazaro, 2019. "A Framework to Advance the Understanding of the Ecological Effects of Extreme Climate Events," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-18, October.
    2. Jose Oteros & Herminia García-Mozo & Roser Botey & Antonio Mestre & Carmen Galán, 2015. "Variations in cereal crop phenology in Spain over the last twenty-six years (1986–2012)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 545-558, June.
    3. Konrad Prandecki & Edyta Gajos, 2018. "Reductin of greenhouse gases emission and sustainability: The multi-criteria approach," International Conference on Competitiveness of Agro-food and Environmental Economy Proceedings, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 7, pages 46-54.
    4. Brice B. Hanberry & Marc D. Abrams & Gregory J. Nowacki, 2024. "Potential Interactions between Climate Change and Land Use for Forest Issues in the Eastern United States," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Jörg Kaduk & Sietse Los, 2011. "Predicting the time of green up in temperate and boreal biomes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 277-304, August.
    6. Machado, Elia Axinia & Purcell, Helene & Simons, Andrew M. & Swinehart, Stephanie, 2020. "The Quest for Greener Pastures: Evaluating the Livelihoods Impacts of Providing Vegetation Condition Maps to Pastoralists in Eastern Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    7. Czesław Koźmiński & Agnieszka Mąkosza & Jadwiga Nidzgorska-Lencewicz & Bożena Michalska, 2023. "Air Frosts in Poland in the Thermal Growing Season (AT > 5 °C)," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Hongyan Cai & Shuwen Zhang & Xiaohuan Yang, 2012. "Forest Dynamics and Their Phenological Response to Climate Warming in the Khingan Mountains, Northeastern China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-11, October.
    9. Huicong An & Xiaorong Zhang & Jiaqi Ye, 2024. "Analysis of Vegetation Environmental Stress and the Lag Effect in Countries along the “Six Economic Corridors”," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-18, April.
    10. Xiuping Yi & Ling Zou & Zigeng Niu & Daoyang Jiang & Qian Cao, 2022. "Multi-Model Ensemble Projections of Winter Extreme Temperature Events on the Chinese Mainland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-21, May.
    11. Kamila Veselá & Lucie Severová & Roman Svoboda, 2022. "The Impact of Temperature and Precipitation Change on the Production of Grapes in the Czech Republic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-15, March.
    12. Marco Archetti & Andrew D Richardson & John O'Keefe & Nicolas Delpierre, 2013. "Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Amount and Duration of Autumn Colors in a New England Forest," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(3), pages 1-8, March.
    13. Andrei Lapenis & Hugh Henry & Mathias Vuille & James Mower, 2014. "Climatic factors controlling plant sensitivity to warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 723-734, February.
    14. Liam D. Bailey & Martijn Pol & Frank Adriaensen & Aneta Arct & Emilio Barba & Paul E. Bellamy & Suzanne Bonamour & Jean-Charles Bouvier & Malcolm D. Burgess & Anne Charmantier & Camillo Cusimano & Bla, 2022. "Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    15. KK Pandey & BVS Sisodia & VN Rai, 2017. "Preliminary Observations on the Behavior ofFeral Chickens (Jungle Fowl) on the Island of Kauai Reflections on Domestication as Complexity," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 4(4), pages 112-116, - Septemb.
    16. Olsson, Cecilia & Jönsson, Anna Maria, 2015. "A model framework for tree leaf colouring in Europe," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 316(C), pages 41-51.
    17. Yuhao Jiang & Baolin Li & Yecheng Yuan & Qingling Sun & Tao Zhang & Yan Liu & Ying Li & Rui Li & Fei Li, 2021. "Trends in Flowering Phenology of Herbaceous Plants and Its Response to Precipitation and Snow Cover on the Qinghai—Tibetan Plateau from 1983 to 2017," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-21, July.
    18. Kim, Sohee & Kang, Sinkyu & Lim, Jong-Hwan & Chun, Jung-Hwa & Sung, Joo-Han, 2012. "Regional parameterization of canopy onset models using MODIS and flowering onset data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 190-198.
    19. Ken Mix & Vicente Lopes & Walter Rast, 2012. "Growing season expansion and related changes in monthly temperature and growing degree days in the Inter-Montane Desert of the San Luis Valley, Colorado," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 723-744, October.
    20. Minkyung Kim & Sojeong Lee & Hakyung Lee & Sangdon Lee, 2021. "Phenological Response in the Trophic Levels to Climate Change in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-12, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:266:y:2013:i:c:p:103-117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.