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Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future

Author

Listed:
  • Meinrat O. Andreae

    (Max Planck Institute for Chemistry)

  • Chris D. Jones

    (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office)

  • Peter M. Cox

    (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

Abstract

Atmospheric aerosols counteract the warming effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases by an uncertain, but potentially large, amount. This in turn leads to large uncertainties in the sensitivity of climate to human perturbations, and therefore also in carbon cycle feedbacks and projections of climate change. In the future, aerosol cooling is expected to decline relative to greenhouse gas forcing, because of the aerosols' much shorter lifetime and the pursuit of a cleaner atmosphere. Strong aerosol cooling in the past and present would then imply that future global warming may proceed at or even above the upper extreme of the range projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Suggested Citation

  • Meinrat O. Andreae & Chris D. Jones & Peter M. Cox, 2005. "Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future," Nature, Nature, vol. 435(7046), pages 1187-1190, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:435:y:2005:i:7046:d:10.1038_nature03671
    DOI: 10.1038/nature03671
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    Cited by:

    1. Magnus, Jan R. & Melenberg, Bertrand & Muris, Chris, 2011. "Global Warming and Local Dimming: The Statistical Evidence," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 452-464.
    2. Thomas Leirvik & Peter C.B. Phillips & Trude Storelvmo, 2017. "Econometric Measurement of Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2083, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Legras, Sophie, 2011. "Incomplete model specification in a multi-pollutants setting: The case of climate change and acidification," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 527-543, September.
    4. Daniel Johansson, 2011. "Temperature stabilization, ocean heat uptake and radiative forcing overshoot profiles," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(1), pages 107-134, September.
    5. Eliseev, Alexey V. & Mokhov, Igor I., 2008. "Eventual saturation of the climate–carbon cycle feedback studied with a conceptual model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 127-132.
    6. Shaodong Xie & Jing Zhang & Yuh-Shan Ho, 2008. "Assessment of world aerosol research trends by bibliometric analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 77(1), pages 113-130, October.
    7. Katsumasa Tanaka & Thomas Raddatz, 2011. "Correlation between climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing and its implication for the “climate trap”," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 815-825, December.
    8. Naomi Vaughan & Timothy Lenton, 2011. "A review of climate geoengineering proposals," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 745-790, December.
    9. José Martín & José Bethencourt & Emilio Cuevas-Agulló, 2012. "Assessment of global warming on the island of Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain). Trends in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures since 1944," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 343-355, September.
    10. Weiwei Xiong & Katsumasa Tanaka & Philippe Ciais & Liang Yan, 2022. "Evaluating China’s Role in Achieving the 1.5 °C Target of the Paris Agreement," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-17, August.
    11. Marten, Alex L., 2011. "Transient temperature response modeling in IAMs: The effects of over simplification on the SCC," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 5, pages 1-42.
    12. Lv, Zongyan & Wu, Lin & Yang, Zhiwen & Yang, Lei & Fang, Tiange & Mao, Hongjun, 2023. "Comparison on real-world driving emission characteristics of CNG, LNG and Hybrid-CNG buses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    13. Longhui Li & Yue Zhang & Tianjun Zhou & Kaicun Wang & Can Wang & Tao Wang & Linwang Yuan & Kangxin An & Chenghu Zhou & Guonian Lü, 2022. "Mitigation of China’s carbon neutrality to global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    14. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Leirvik, Thomas & Storelvmo, Trude, 2020. "Econometric estimates of Earth’s transient climate sensitivity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 6-32.

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