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Decline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation

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  • Andreas Schmittner

    (Oregon State University)

Abstract

Ecosystems in hot water Changes in the North Atlantic component of global ocean overturning circulation, the AMO (Atlantic meridional overturning), were associated with abrupt climate change during the last ice age. It has been suggested that global warming could enhance freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic and shut down the AMO, causing significant cooling. These possible climate effects have attracted a lot of attention, but little thought has been given to what might happen to the marine ecosystem if the AMO were to weaken or disappear. Andreas Schmittner has performed a detailed simulation and finds that a collapse of the AMO would cut global productivity by about 20%. The model results are consistent with the available records of past productivity. The decline in plankton stocks that would accompany changes of that scale could have a dramatic impact on fisheries in the affected areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Schmittner, 2005. "Decline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation," Nature, Nature, vol. 434(7033), pages 628-633, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:434:y:2005:i:7033:d:10.1038_nature03476
    DOI: 10.1038/nature03476
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    Cited by:

    1. Anders Levermann & Jonathan Bamber & Sybren Drijfhout & Andrey Ganopolski & Winfried Haeberli & Neil Harris & Matthias Huss & Kirstin Krüger & Timothy Lenton & Ronald Lindsay & Dirk Notz & Peter Wadha, 2012. "Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 845-878, February.
    2. Da Rocha, José María & Gutiérrez Huerta, María José & Villasante, Sebastián, 2013. "Economic Effects of Global Warming under Stock Growth Uncertainty: The European Sardine Fishery," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    3. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Anders Levermann & Malte Meinshausen, 2014. "Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 579-586, December.
    4. Löptien, Ulrike, 2011. "Steady states and sensitivities of commonly used pelagic ecosystem model components," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(8), pages 1376-1386.

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