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Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather

Author

Listed:
  • T. B. Hallett

    (University of Cambridge
    Imperial College of Science Technology and Medicine)

  • T. Coulson

    (Imperial College at Silwood Park)

  • J. G. Pilkington

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • T. H. Clutton-Brock

    (University of Cambridge)

  • J. M. Pemberton

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • B. T. Grenfell

    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

Large-scale climatic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation1 are associated with population dynamics2, variation in demographic rates3 and values of phenotypic traits4,5 in many species. Paradoxically, these large-scale indices can seem to be better predictors of ecological processes than local climate5,6,7,8. Using detailed data from a population of Soay sheep9,10, we show that high rainfall, high winds or low temperatures at any time during a 3-month period can cause mortality either immediately or lagged by a few days. Most measures of local climate used by ecologists fail to capture such complex associations between weather and ecological process, and this may help to explain why large-scale, seasonal indices of climate spanning several months can outperform local climatic factors. Furthermore, we show why an understanding of the mechanism by which climate influences population ecology is important. Through simulation we demonstrate that the timing of bad weather within a period of mortality can have an important modifying influence on intraspecific competition for food, revealing an interaction between climate and density dependence11 that the use of large-scale climatic indices or inappropriate local weather variables might obscure.

Suggested Citation

  • T. B. Hallett & T. Coulson & J. G. Pilkington & T. H. Clutton-Brock & J. M. Pemberton & B. T. Grenfell, 2004. "Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6995), pages 71-75, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:430:y:2004:i:6995:d:10.1038_nature02708
    DOI: 10.1038/nature02708
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. José Hódar & Regino Zamora & Luis Cayuela, 2012. "Climate change and the incidence of a forest pest in Mediterranean ecosystems: can the North Atlantic Oscillation be used as a predictor?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 699-711, August.
    2. Rubén Moreno-Opo & Mariana Fernández-Olalla & Antoni Margalida & Ángel Arredondo & Francisco Guil, 2012. "Effect of Methodological and Ecological Approaches on Heterogeneity of Nest-Site Selection of a Long-Lived Vulture," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(3), pages 1-9, March.
    3. Salvador Herrando-Pérez & Steven Delean & Barry W Brook & Phillip Cassey & Corey J A Bradshaw, 2014. "Spatial Climate Patterns Explain Negligible Variation in Strength of Compensatory Density Feedbacks in Birds and Mammals," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(3), pages 1-12, March.
    4. Shilu Tong & Peter Mather & Gerry Fitzgerald & David McRae & Ken Verrall & Dylan Walker, 2010. "Assessing the Vulnerability of Eco-Environmental Health to Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-19, February.
    5. Montalto, Valeria & Sarà, Gianluca & Ruti, Paolo Michele & Dell’Aquila, Alessandro & Helmuth, Brian, 2014. "Testing the effects of temporal data resolution on predictions of the effects of climate change on bivalves," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 278(C), pages 1-8.
    6. Ezard, Thomas H.G. & Coulson, Tim, 2010. "How sensitive are elasticities of long-run stochastic growth to how environmental variability is modelled?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 191-200.
    7. Juan Shi & Rou-Jia Wang & Feng-yan Wang, 2020. "Mind–Body Health Technique Liu Zi Jue: Its Creation, Transition, and Formalization," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, May.
    8. Ali Assani & Alain Chalifour & Guillaume Légaré & Caza-Szoka Manouane & Denis Leroux, 2011. "Temporal Regionalization of 7-Day Low Flows in the St. Lawrence Watershed in Quebec (Canada)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3559-3574, November.
    9. Chloé Monestier & Nicolas Morellet & Jean-Michel Gaillard & Bruno Cargnelutti & Cécile Vanpé & A.J. Mark Hewison, 2015. "Is a proactive mum a good mum? A mother’s coping style influences early fawn survival in roe deer," Behavioral Ecology, International Society for Behavioral Ecology, vol. 26(5), pages 1395-1403.

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