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A test of the unified neutral theory of biodiversity

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  • Brian J. McGill

    (University of Arizona)

Abstract

One of the fundamental questions of ecology is what controls biodiversity. Recent theory suggests that biodiversity is controlled predominantly by neutral drift of species abundances1,2,3,4. This theory has generated considerable controversy5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12, because it claims that many mechanisms that have long been studied by ecologists (such as niches) have little involvement in structuring communities. The theory predicts that the species abundance distribution within a community should follow a zero-sum multinomial distribution (ZSM), but this has not, so far, been rigorously tested. Specifically, it remains to be shown that the ZSM fits the data significantly better than reasonable null models. Here I test whether the ZSM fits several empirical data sets better than the lognormal distribution. It does not. Not only does the ZSM fail to fit empirical data better than the lognormal distribution 95% of the time, it also fails to fit empirical data better even a majority of the time. This means that there is no evidence that the ZSM predicts abundances better than the much more parsimonious null hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian J. McGill, 2003. "A test of the unified neutral theory of biodiversity," Nature, Nature, vol. 422(6934), pages 881-885, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:422:y:2003:i:6934:d:10.1038_nature01583
    DOI: 10.1038/nature01583
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    Cited by:

    1. Urban, Natasha A. & Matter, Stephen F., 2018. "Metapopulation mirages: Problems parsing process from pattern," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 375(C), pages 20-29.
    2. Yosef E Maruvka & Nadav M Shnerb, 2009. "Polymorphism Data Can Reveal the Origin of Species Abundance Statistics," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(4), pages 1-6, April.
    3. Withrow, Frances G. & Roelke, Daniel L. & Muhl, Rika M.W. & Bhattacharyya, Joydeb, 2018. "Water column processes differentially influence richness and diversity of neutral, lumpy and intransitive phytoplankton assemblages," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 370(C), pages 22-32.
    4. Yang, Yinghui & Bao, Liping, 2022. "Scale-dependent changes in species richness caused by invader competition," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 469(C).
    5. Edgardo Brigatti & Estevan Augusto Amazonas Mendes, 2021. "Testing macroecological theories in cryptocurrency market: neutral models can not describe diversity patterns and their variation," Papers 2111.02067, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    6. Beeravolu, Champak R. & Couteron, Pierre & Pélissier, Raphaël & Munoz, François, 2009. "Studying ecological communities from a neutral standpoint: A review of models’ structure and parameter estimation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(20), pages 2603-2610.
    7. Tancredi Caruso & Jeff R Powell & Matthias C Rillig, 2012. "Compositional Divergence and Convergence in Local Communities and Spatially Structured Landscapes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(4), pages 1-10, April.
    8. Gatti, Roberto Cazzolla & Hordijk, Wim & Kauffman, Stuart, 2017. "Biodiversity is autocatalytic," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 346(C), pages 70-76.
    9. Köhler, Peter & Huth, Andreas, 2007. "Impacts of recruitment limitation and canopy disturbance on tropical tree species richness," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 511-517.
    10. Han, Zhi-Quan & Liu, Tong & Zhao, Wen-Xuan & Wang, Han-Yue & Sun, Qin-Ming & Sun, Hui & Li, Bai-Lian, 2022. "A new species abundance distribution model including the hydrological niche differentiation in water-limited ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 470(C).
    11. Kolasa, Jurek & Allen, Craig R. & Sendzimir, Jan & Stow, Craig A., 2012. "Predictions and retrodictions of the hierarchical representation of habitat in heterogeneous environments," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 245(C), pages 199-207.
    12. Bhattacharyya, Joydeb & Roelke, Daniel L. & Muhl, Rika M.W. & Withrow, Frances G., 2018. "Exploitative competition of invaders differentially influences the diversity of neutral, lumpy and intransitive phytoplankton assemblages in spatially heterogeneous environments," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 370(C), pages 59-66.
    13. Engen, Steinar & Aagaard, Kaare & Bongard, Terje, 2011. "Disentangling the effects of heterogeneity, stochastic dynamics and sampling in a community of aquatic insects," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(8), pages 1387-1393.

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