IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v170y2022ics1364032122008681.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extreme events in the European renewable power system: Validation of a modeling framework to estimate renewable electricity production and demand from meteorological data

Author

Listed:
  • van der Most, L.
  • van der Wiel, K.
  • Benders, R.M.J.
  • Gerbens-Leenes, P.W.
  • Kerkmans, P.
  • Bintanja, R.

Abstract

With the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the coming decades will see a transition of Europe's power system, currently mainly based on fossil fuels towards a higher share of renewable sources. Increasing effects of fluctuations in electricity production and demand as a result of meteorological variability might cause compound events with unforeseen impacts. We constructed and validated a modeling framework to examine such extreme impact events on the European power system. This framework includes six modules: i) a reservoir hydropower inflow and ii) dispatch module; iii) a run-of-river hydropower production module; iv) a wind energy production module; v) a photovoltaic solar energy production model; and vi) an electricity demand module. Based on ERA5 reanalysis input data and present-day capacity distributions, we computed electricity production and demand for a set of European countries in the period 2015–2021 and compared results to observed data. The model captures the variability and extremes of wind, photovoltaic and run-of-river production well, with correlations between modelled and observed data for most countries of more than 0.87, 0.68 and 0.65 respectively. The hydropower dispatch module also functions well, with correlations up to 0.82, but struggles to capture reservoir inflows and operating procedures of some countries. A case study into the meteorological drivers of extreme events in Sweden and Spain showed that the meteorological conditions during extreme events selected by the model and extracted from observational data are similar, giving confidence in the application of the modeling framework for (future changes in) extreme event analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • van der Most, L. & van der Wiel, K. & Benders, R.M.J. & Gerbens-Leenes, P.W. & Kerkmans, P. & Bintanja, R., 2022. "Extreme events in the European renewable power system: Validation of a modeling framework to estimate renewable electricity production and demand from meteorological data," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:170:y:2022:i:c:s1364032122008681
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112987
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032122008681
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112987?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engeland, Kolbjørn & Borga, Marco & Creutin, Jean-Dominique & François, Baptiste & Ramos, Maria-Helena & Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2017. "Space-time variability of climate variables and intermittent renewable electricity production – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 600-617.
    2. Hirth, Lion & Mühlenpfordt, Jonathan & Bulkeley, Marisa, 2018. "The ENTSO-E Transparency Platform – A review of Europe’s most ambitious electricity data platform," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 1054-1067.
    3. Michelle T. H. van Vliet & John R. Yearsley & Fulco Ludwig & Stefan Vögele & Dennis P. Lettenmaier & Pavel Kabat, 2012. "Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 676-681, September.
    4. van der Wiel, K. & Stoop, L.P. & van Zuijlen, B.R.H. & Blackport, R. & van den Broek, M.A. & Selten, F.M., 2019. "Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 261-275.
    5. Staffell, Iain & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2018. "The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 65-78.
    6. Bonjean Stanton, Muriel C. & Dessai, Suraje & Paavola, Jouni, 2016. "A systematic review of the impacts of climate variability and change on electricity systems in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1148-1159.
    7. Moral-Carcedo, Julian & Vicens-Otero, Jose, 2005. "Modelling the non-linear response of Spanish electricity demand to temperature variations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 477-494, May.
    8. Pfenninger, Stefan & Staffell, Iain, 2016. "Long-term patterns of European PV output using 30 years of validated hourly reanalysis and satellite data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1251-1265.
    9. Linh T. T. Ho & Laurent Dubus & Matteo De Felice & Alberto Troccoli, 2020. "Reconstruction of Multidecadal Country-Aggregated Hydro Power Generation in Europe Based on a Random Forest Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-17, April.
    10. A. T. D. Perera & Vahid M. Nik & Deliang Chen & Jean-Louis Scartezzini & Tianzhen Hong, 2020. "Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 150-159, February.
    11. Apadula, Francesco & Bassini, Alessandra & Elli, Alberto & Scapin, Simone, 2012. "Relationships between meteorological variables and monthly electricity demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 346-356.
    12. Widén, Joakim & Carpman, Nicole & Castellucci, Valeria & Lingfors, David & Olauson, Jon & Remouit, Flore & Bergkvist, Mikael & Grabbe, Mårten & Waters, Rafael, 2015. "Variability assessment and forecasting of renewables: A review for solar, wind, wave and tidal resources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 356-375.
    13. Gallo Cassarino, Tiziano & Sharp, Ed & Barrett, Mark, 2018. "The impact of social and weather drivers on the historical electricity demand in Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 176-185.
    14. Sarah Feron & Raúl R. Cordero & Alessandro Damiani & Robert B. Jackson, 2021. "Climate change extremes and photovoltaic power output," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 4(3), pages 270-276, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    2. Ian M. Trotter & Torjus F. Bolkesj{o} & Eirik O. J{aa}stad & Jon Gustav Kirkerud, 2021. "Increased Electrification of Heating and Weather Risk in the Nordic Power System," Papers 2112.02893, arXiv.org.
    3. Kies, Alexander & Schyska, Bruno U. & Bilousova, Mariia & El Sayed, Omar & Jurasz, Jakub & Stoecker, Horst, 2021. "Critical review of renewable generation datasets and their implications for European power system models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Koh, Rachel & Kern, Jordan & Galelli, Stefano, 2022. "Hard-coupling water and power system models increases the complementarity of renewable energy sources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    5. Alexis Tantet & Marc Stéfanon & Philippe Drobinski & Jordi Badosa & Silvia Concettini & Anna Cretì & Claudia D’Ambrosio & Dimitri Thomopulos & Peter Tankov, 2019. "e 4 clim 1.0: The Energy for a Climate Integrated Model: Description and Application to Italy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-37, November.
    6. Grochowicz, Aleksander & van Greevenbroek, Koen & Benth, Fred Espen & Zeyringer, Marianne, 2023. "Intersecting near-optimal spaces: European power systems with more resilience to weather variability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    7. Drücke, Jaqueline & Borsche, Michael & James, Paul & Kaspar, Frank & Pfeifroth, Uwe & Ahrens, Bodo & Trentmann, Jörg, 2021. "Climatological analysis of solar and wind energy in Germany using the Grosswetterlagen classification," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1254-1266.
    8. Bowen Li & Sukanta Basu & Simon J. Watson & Herman W. J. Russchenberg, 2021. "A Brief Climatology of Dunkelflaute Events over and Surrounding the North and Baltic Sea Areas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-14, October.
    9. Omoyele, Olalekan & Hoffmann, Maximilian & Koivisto, Matti & Larrañeta, Miguel & Weinand, Jann Michael & Linßen, Jochen & Stolten, Detlef, 2024. "Increasing the resolution of solar and wind time series for energy system modeling: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    10. Bracken, Cameron & Voisin, Nathalie & Burleyson, Casey D. & Campbell, Allison M. & Hou, Z. Jason & Broman, Daniel, 2024. "Standardized benchmark of historical compound wind and solar energy droughts across the Continental United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    11. Santágata, Daniela M. & Castesana, Paula & Rössler, Cristina E. & Gómez, Darío R., 2017. "Extreme temperature events affecting the electricity distribution system of the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires (1971–2013)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 404-414.
    12. Chabouni, Naima & Belarbi, Yacine & Benhassine, Wassim, 2020. "Electricity load dynamics, temperature and seasonality Nexus in Algeria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    13. Huxley, O.T. & Taylor, J. & Everard, A. & Briggs, J. & Tilley, K. & Harwood, J. & Buckley, A., 2022. "The uncertainties involved in measuring national solar photovoltaic electricity generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    14. Otero, Noelia & Martius, Olivia & Allen, Sam & Bloomfield, Hannah & Schaefli, Bettina, 2022. "A copula-based assessment of renewable energy droughts across Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 667-677.
    15. Zech, Matthias & von Bremen, Lueder, 2024. "End-to-end learning of representative PV capacity factors from aggregated PV feed-ins," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 361(C).
    16. Lin, Boqiang & Raza, Muhammad Yousaf, 2021. "Analysis of electricity consumption in Pakistan using index decomposition and decoupling approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    17. Gabrielli, Paolo & Aboutalebi, Reyhaneh & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2022. "Mitigating financial risk of corporate power purchase agreements via portfolio optimization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    18. Coker, Phil J. & Bloomfield, Hannah C. & Drew, Daniel R. & Brayshaw, David J., 2020. "Interannual weather variability and the challenges for Great Britain’s electricity market design," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 509-522.
    19. Guangsheng Pan & Qinran Hu & Wei Gu & Shixing Ding & Haifeng Qiu & Yuping Lu, 2021. "Assessment of plum rain’s impact on power system emissions in Yangtze-Huaihe River basin of China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    20. Mads Raunbak & Timo Zeyer & Kun Zhu & Martin Greiner, 2017. "Principal Mismatch Patterns Across a Simplified Highly Renewable European Electricity Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-13, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:170:y:2022:i:c:s1364032122008681. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.