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Increasing the resilience of the Texas power grid against extreme storms by hardening critical lines

Author

Listed:
  • Julian Stürmer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    TU Berlin)

  • Anton Plietzsch

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Fraunhofer Research Institution for Energy Infrastructures and Geothermal Systems)

  • Thomas Vogt

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Frank Hellmann

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Jürgen Kurths

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    University of Potsdam
    Humboldt Universität zu Berlin)

  • Christian Otto

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Katja Frieler

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Mehrnaz Anvari

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Fraunhofer Institute for Algorithms and Scientific Computing)

Abstract

The Texas power grid on the Gulf Coast of the United States is frequently hit by tropical cyclones (TCs) causing widespread power outages, a risk that is expected to substantially increase under global warming. Here we introduce a new approach that combines a probabilistic line failure model with a network model of the Texas grid to simulate the spatio-temporal co-evolution of wind-induced failures of high-voltage transmission lines and the resulting cascading power outages from seven major historical TCs. The approach allows reproducing observed supply failures. In addition, compared to existing static approaches, it provides a notable advantage in identifying critical lines whose failure can trigger large supply shortages. We show that hardening only 1% of total lines can reduce the likelihood of the most destructive type of outage by a factor of between 5 and 20. The proposed modelling approach could represent a so far missing tool for identifying effective options to strengthen power grids against future TC strikes, even under limited knowledge.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian Stürmer & Anton Plietzsch & Thomas Vogt & Frank Hellmann & Jürgen Kurths & Christian Otto & Katja Frieler & Mehrnaz Anvari, 2024. "Increasing the resilience of the Texas power grid against extreme storms by hardening critical lines," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 526-535, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:9:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1038_s41560-023-01434-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-023-01434-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sergey V. Buldyrev & Roni Parshani & Gerald Paul & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2010. "Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7291), pages 1025-1028, April.
    2. Winkler, James & Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo & Stein, Robert & Subramanian, Devika, 2010. "Performance assessment of topologically diverse power systems subjected to hurricane events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(4), pages 323-336.
    3. Tobias Geiger & Johannes Gütschow & David N. Bresch & Kerry Emanuel & Katja Frieler, 2021. "Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(10), pages 861-866, October.
    4. Xue, Jiayue & Mohammadi, Farshad & Li, Xin & Sahraei-Ardakani, Mostafa & Ou, Ge & Pu, Zhaoxia, 2020. "Impact of transmission tower-line interaction to the bulk power system during hurricane," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    5. Han, Seung-Ryong & Guikema, Seth D. & Quiring, Steven M. & Lee, Kyung-Ho & Rosowsky, David & Davidson, Rachel A., 2009. "Estimating the spatial distribution of power outages during hurricanes in the Gulf coast region," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 199-210.
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