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Breaking the hard-to-abate bottleneck in China’s path to carbon neutrality with clean hydrogen

Author

Listed:
  • Xi Yang

    (Harvard University)

  • Chris P. Nielsen

    (Harvard University)

  • Shaojie Song

    (Harvard University
    Nankai University)

  • Michael B. McElroy

    (Harvard University
    Harvard University)

Abstract

Countries such as China are facing a bottleneck in their paths to carbon neutrality: abating emissions in heavy industries and heavy-duty transport. There are few in-depth studies of the prospective role for clean hydrogen in these ‘hard-to-abate’ (HTA) sectors. Here we carry out an integrated dynamic least-cost modelling analysis. Results show that, first, clean hydrogen can be both a major energy carrier and feedstock that can significantly reduce carbon emissions of heavy industry. It can also fuel up to 50% of China’s heavy-duty truck and bus fleets by 2060 and significant shares of shipping. Second, a realistic clean hydrogen scenario that reaches 65.7 Mt of production in 2060 could avoid US$1.72 trillion of new investment compared with a no-hydrogen scenario. This study provides evidence of the value of clean hydrogen in HTA sectors for China and countries facing similar challenges in reducing emissions to achieve net-zero goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Xi Yang & Chris P. Nielsen & Shaojie Song & Michael B. McElroy, 2022. "Breaking the hard-to-abate bottleneck in China’s path to carbon neutrality with clean hydrogen," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 955-965, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:7:y:2022:i:10:d:10.1038_s41560-022-01114-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-022-01114-6
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    Cited by:

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    2. Liu, Haifeng & Ampah, Jeffrey Dankwa & Afrane, Sandylove & Adun, Humphrey & Jin, Chao & Yao, Mingfa, 2023. "Deployment of hydrogen in hard-to-abate transport sectors under limited carbon dioxide removal (CDR): Implications on global energy-land-water system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    3. Lan, Yuncheng & Lu, Junhui & Wang, Suilin, 2023. "Study of the geometry and structure of a thermoelectric leg with variable material properties and side heat dissipation based on thermodynamic, economic, and environmental analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    4. Meng Niu & Xiangjun Li & Chen Sun & Xiaoqing Xiu & Yue Wang & Mingyue Hu & Haitao Dong, 2023. "Operation Optimization of Wind/Battery Storage/Alkaline Electrolyzer System Considering Dynamic Hydrogen Production Efficiency," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-20, August.
    5. Yuandong Yan & Ruyi Wang & Qian Zheng & Jiaying Zhong & Weichang Hao & Shicheng Yan & Zhigang Zou, 2023. "Nonredox trivalent nickel catalyzing nucleophilic electrooxidation of organics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Lin, Yuancheng & Ma, Linwei & Li, Zheng & Ni, Weidou, 2023. "The carbon reduction potential by improving technical efficiency from energy sources to final services in China: An extended Kaya identity analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    7. Guo, Zhi & Mao, Xianqiang & Lu, Jianhong & Gao, Yubing & Chen, Xing & Zhang, Shining & Ma, Zhiyuan, 2024. "Can a new power system create more employment in China?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    8. Li, Chengzhe & Zhang, Libo & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2024. "Towards low-carbon steel: System dynamics simulation of policies impact on green hydrogen steelmaking in China and the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    9. Zhou, Bo & Zhang, Cheng, 2023. "When green finance meets banking competition: Evidence from hard-to-abate enterprises of China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Chen, Huayu & Wang, Zehao & He, He & Chen, Jiadian & Yin, Hang & Yu, Dandan & Liang, Junhui & Qin, Laishun & Huang, Yuexiang & Chen, Da, 2024. "Few-layer MoAlB nanosheets with Al vacancies enhanced hydroxyl adsorption for improved water oxidation kinetics," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    11. Danlu Xu & Zhoubin Liu & Jiahui Zhu & Qin Fang & Rui Shan, 2023. "Linking Cost Decline and Demand Surge in the Hydrogen Market: A Case Study in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-13, June.
    12. Jiani Mao & Guangxue Zhang & Zhongqian Ling & Dingkun Yuan & Maosheng Liu & Jiangrong Xu, 2024. "Potentials of Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP)-Based Optimization for Low-Carbon Hydrogen Production and Development Pathways in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-18, April.

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