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Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs

Author

Listed:
  • Mikhail Sofiev

    (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

  • James J. Winebrake

    (Rochester Institute of Technology)

  • Lasse Johansson

    (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

  • Edward W. Carr

    (Energy and Environmental Research Associates, LLC)

  • Marje Prank

    (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

  • Joana Soares

    (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

  • Julius Vira

    (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

  • Rostislav Kouznetsov

    (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

  • Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen

    (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

  • James J. Corbett

    (University of Delaware)

Abstract

We evaluate public health and climate impacts of low-sulphur fuels in global shipping. Using high-resolution emissions inventories, integrated atmospheric models, and health risk functions, we assess ship-related PM2.5 pollution impacts in 2020 with and without the use of low-sulphur fuels. Cleaner marine fuels will reduce ship-related premature mortality and morbidity by 34 and 54%, respectively, representing a ~ 2.6% global reduction in PM2.5 cardiovascular and lung cancer deaths and a ~3.6% global reduction in childhood asthma. Despite these reductions, low-sulphur marine fuels will still account for ~250k deaths and ~6.4 M childhood asthma cases annually, and more stringent standards beyond 2020 may provide additional health benefits. Lower sulphur fuels also reduce radiative cooling from ship aerosols by ~80%, equating to a ~3% increase in current estimates of total anthropogenic forcing. Therefore, stronger international shipping policies may need to achieve climate and health targets by jointly reducing greenhouse gases and air pollution.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhail Sofiev & James J. Winebrake & Lasse Johansson & Edward W. Carr & Marje Prank & Joana Soares & Julius Vira & Rostislav Kouznetsov & Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen & James J. Corbett, 2018. "Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-02774-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02774-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Ming & Zeng, Xianyang & Tan, Zhijia, 2024. "Joint decision of green technology adoption and sailing pattern for a coastal ship under ECAs," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 102-113.
    2. Ádám Ipkovich & Károly Héberger & János Abonyi, 2021. "Comprehensible Visualization of Multidimensional Data: Sum of Ranking Differences-Based Parallel Coordinates," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(24), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Zheng Wan & Jiawei Ge & Jihong Chen, 2018. "Energy-Saving Potential and an Economic Feasibility Analysis for an Arctic Route between Shanghai and Rotterdam: Case Study from China’s Largest Container Sea Freight Operator," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-13, March.
    4. Li, Lingyue & Gao, Suixiang & Yang, Wenguo & Xiong, Xing, 2021. "Assessment and improvement of EPA's penalty policy: From the perspective of governments' and ships' behaviors," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 18-28.
    5. Janne Huotari & Antti Ritari & Jari Vepsäläinen & Kari Tammi, 2020. "Hybrid Ship Unit Commitment with Demand Prediction and Model Predictive Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-21, September.
    6. Anna Lunde Hermansson & Ida-Maja Hassellöv & Tiia Grönholm & Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen & Erik Fridell & Rasmus Parsmo & Jesper Hassellöv & Erik Ytreberg, 2024. "Strong economic incentives of ship scrubbers promoting pollution," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 812-822, June.
    7. Hui-Huang Tai & Yun-Hua Chang, 2022. "Reducing pollutant emissions from vessel maneuvering in port areas," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 24(3), pages 651-671, September.
    8. Jessica Kersey & Natalie D. Popovich & Amol A. Phadke, 2022. "Rapid battery cost declines accelerate the prospects of all-electric interregional container shipping," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(7), pages 664-674, July.
    9. Rui Yang & Yupeng Yuan & Rushun Ying & Boyang Shen & Teng Long, 2020. "A Novel Energy Management Strategy for a Ship’s Hybrid Solar Energy Generation System Using a Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-14, March.
    10. Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, 2022. "What Are the Sectors Contributing to the Exceedance of European Air Quality Standards over the Iberian Peninsula? A Source Contribution Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, February.
    11. Zhuge, Dan & Wang, Shuaian & Wang, David Z.W., 2021. "A joint liner ship path, speed and deployment problem under emission reduction measures," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 155-173.
    12. Maja Perčić & Nikola Vladimir & Marija Koričan, 2021. "Electrification of Inland Waterway Ships Considering Power System Lifetime Emissions and Costs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-25, October.
    13. James J. Winebrake & James J. Corbett & Fatima Umar & Daniel Yuska, 2019. "Pollution Tradeoffs for Conventional and Natural Gas-Based Marine Fuels," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, April.

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