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Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient

Author

Listed:
  • Mathew Koll Roxy

    (Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)

  • Kapoor Ritika

    (Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
    Fergusson College, University of Pune)

  • Pascal Terray

    (Sorbonne Universites (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN Laboratory
    Indo-French Cell for Water Sciences, IISc-IITM-NIO–IRD Joint International Laboratory, IITM)

  • Raghu Murtugudde

    (ESSIC, University of Maryland)

  • Karumuri Ashok

    (Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
    Centre for Earth and Space Sciences, University of Hyderabad)

  • B. N. Goswami

    (Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
    Indian Institute of Science Education and Research)

Abstract

There are large uncertainties looming over the status and fate of the South Asian summer monsoon, with several studies debating whether the monsoon is weakening or strengthening in a changing climate. Our analysis using multiple observed datasets demonstrates a significant weakening trend in summer rainfall during 1901–2012 over the central-east and northern regions of India, along the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins and the Himalayan foothills, where agriculture is still largely rain-fed. Earlier studies have suggested an increase in moisture availability and land-sea thermal gradient in the tropics due to anthropogenic warming, favouring an increase in tropical rainfall. Here we show that the land-sea thermal gradient over South Asia has been decreasing, due to rapid warming in the Indian Ocean and a relatively subdued warming over the subcontinent. Using long-term observations and coupled model experiments, we provide compelling evidence that the enhanced Indian Ocean warming potentially weakens the land-sea thermal contrast, dampens the summer monsoon Hadley circulation, and thereby reduces the rainfall over parts of South Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathew Koll Roxy & Kapoor Ritika & Pascal Terray & Raghu Murtugudde & Karumuri Ashok & B. N. Goswami, 2015. "Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-10, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:6:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms8423
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms8423
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    Cited by:

    1. Lara Paige Brodie & Smit Vasquez Caballero & Elena Ojea & Sarah F. W. Taylor & Michael Roberts & Patrick Vianello & Narriman Jiddawi & Shankar Aswani & Juan Bueno, 2024. "A new framework on climate-induced food-security risk for small-scale fishing communities in Tanzania," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 16(5), pages 1125-1145, October.
    2. Kaustubh Salvi & Subimal Ghosh, 2016. "Projections of Extreme Dry and Wet Spells in the 21st Century India Using Stationary and Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Indices," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 667-681, December.
    3. Soma Sen Roy & Shouraseni Sen Roy, 2021. "Spatial patterns of long-term trends in thunderstorms in India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1527-1540, June.
    4. Singh, Naveen P. & Anand, Bhawna & Singh, Surendra, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in India: Assessment for Agro-Climatic Zones," Policy Papers 344978, ICAR National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NIAP).
    5. Sarah F. W. Taylor & Michael J. Roberts & Ben Milligan & Ronney Ncwadi, 2019. "Measurement and implications of marine food security in the Western Indian Ocean: an impending crisis?," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1395-1415, December.
    6. Shuchang Tang & Anouk Vlug & Shilong Piao & Fei Li & Tao Wang & Gerhard Krinner & Laurent Z. X. Li & Xuhui Wang & Guangjian Wu & Yue Li & Yuan Zhang & Xu Lian & Tandong Yao, 2023. "Regional and tele-connected impacts of the Tibetan Plateau surface darkening," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Tejasvi Chauhan & Anjana Devanand & Mathew Koll Roxy & Karumuri Ashok & Subimal Ghosh, 2023. "River interlinking alters land-atmosphere feedback and changes the Indian summer monsoon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Vimal Mishra & Reepal Shah & Amit Garg, 2016. "Climate Change in Madhya Pradesh: Indicators, Impacts and Adaptation," Working Papers id:10844, eSocialSciences.
    9. Shahfahad & Ahmed Ali Bindajam & Mohd Waseem Naikoo & Swapan Talukdar & Asif & Javed Mallick & Atiqur Rahman, 2024. "Analysing diurnal temperature range and extreme temperature events over Delhi and Mumbai mega cities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(10), pages 9267-9295, August.
    10. Mishra, Vimal & Shah, Reepal & Garg, Amit, 2016. "Climate Change in Madhya Pradesh: Indicators, Impacts and Adaptation," IIMA Working Papers WP2016-05-05, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.

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