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Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome

Author

Listed:
  • Massimo Bourquin

    (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL))

  • Hannes Peter

    (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL))

  • Grégoire Michoud

    (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL))

  • Susheel Bhanu Busi

    (UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

  • Tyler J. Kohler

    (Charles University)

  • Andrew L. Robison

    (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL))

  • Mike Styllas

    (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL))

  • Leïla Ezzat

    (IRD)

  • Aileen U. Geers

    (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL))

  • Matthias Huss

    (ETH Zurich
    University of Fribourg
    Snow and Landscape Research (WSL))

  • Stilianos Fodelianakis

    (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL))

  • Tom J. Battin

    (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL))

Abstract

The shrinkage of glaciers and the vanishing of glacier-fed streams (GFSs) are emblematic of climate change. However, forecasts of how GFS microbiome structure and function will change under projected climate change scenarios are lacking. Combining 2,333 prokaryotic metagenome-assembled genomes with climatic, glaciological, and environmental data collected by the Vanishing Glaciers project from 164 GFSs draining Earth’s major mountain ranges, we here predict the future of the GFS microbiome until the end of the century under various climate change scenarios. Our model framework is rooted in a space-for-time substitution design and leverages statistical learning approaches. We predict that declining environmental selection promotes primary production in GFSs, stimulating both bacterial biomass and biodiversity. Concomitantly, predictions suggest that the phylogenetic structure of the GFS microbiome will change and entire bacterial clades are at risk. Furthermore, genomic projections reveal that microbiome functions will shift, with intensified solar energy acquisition pathways, heterotrophy and algal-bacterial interactions. Altogether, we project a ‘greener’ future of the world’s GFSs accompanied by a loss of clades that have adapted to environmental harshness, with consequences for ecosystem functioning.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Bourquin & Hannes Peter & Grégoire Michoud & Susheel Bhanu Busi & Tyler J. Kohler & Andrew L. Robison & Mike Styllas & Leïla Ezzat & Aileen U. Geers & Matthias Huss & Stilianos Fodelianakis & , 2025. "Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-56426-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56426-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin J. Gaston, 2000. "Global patterns in biodiversity," Nature, Nature, vol. 405(6783), pages 220-227, May.
    2. Massimo Bourquin & Susheel Bhanu Busi & Stilianos Fodelianakis & Hannes Peter & Alex Washburne & Tyler J. Kohler & Leïla Ezzat & Grégoire Michoud & Paul Wilmes & Tom J. Battin, 2022. "The microbiome of cryospheric ecosystems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Romain Hugonnet & Robert McNabb & Etienne Berthier & Brian Menounos & Christopher Nuth & Luc Girod & Daniel Farinotti & Matthias Huss & Ines Dussaillant & Fanny Brun & Andreas Kääb, 2021. "Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century," Nature, Nature, vol. 592(7856), pages 726-731, April.
    4. Tom J. Battin & Ronny Lauerwald & Emily S. Bernhardt & Enrico Bertuzzo & Lluís Gómez Gener & Robert O. Hall & Erin R. Hotchkiss & Taylor Maavara & Tamlin M. Pavelsky & Lishan Ran & Peter Raymond & Jud, 2023. "River ecosystem metabolism and carbon biogeochemistry in a changing world," Nature, Nature, vol. 613(7944), pages 449-459, January.
    5. Sarah C. Fell & Jonathan L. Carrivick & Sophie Cauvy-Fraunié & Verónica Crespo-Pérez & Eran Hood & Kate C. Randall & Kirsty J. Matthews Nicholass & Scott D. Tiegs & Alex J. Dumbrell & Lee E. Brown, 2021. "Fungal decomposition of river organic matter accelerated by decreasing glacier cover," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 349-353, April.
    6. Zhenyan Zhang & Qi Zhang & Bingfeng Chen & Yitian Yu & Tingzhang Wang & Nuohan Xu & Xiaoji Fan & Josep Penuelas & Zhengwei Fu & Ye Deng & Yong-Guan Zhu & Haifeng Qian, 2024. "Global biogeography of microbes driving ocean ecological status under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
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