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Enhanced CH4 emissions from global wildfires likely due to undetected small fires

Author

Listed:
  • Junri Zhao

    (Tsinghua University
    State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Tsinghua University
    Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Frederic Chevallier

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Josep G. Canadell

    (CSIRO Environment)

  • Ivar R. Velde

    (SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research
    Vrije Universiteit)

  • Emilio Chuvieco

    (and the Environment)

  • Yang Chen

    (University of California, Irvine)

  • Qiang Zhang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Kebin He

    (State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex
    Tsinghua University)

  • Bo Zheng

    (Tsinghua University
    State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex)

Abstract

Monitoring methane (CH4) emissions from terrestrial ecosystems is essential for assessing the relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors leading to climate change and shaping global climate goals. Fires are a significant source of atmospheric CH4, with the increasing frequency of megafires amplifying their impact. Global fire emissions exhibit large spatiotemporal variations, making the magnitude and dynamics difficult to characterize accurately. In this study, we reconstruct global fire CH4 emissions by integrating satellite carbon monoxide (CO)-based atmospheric inversion with well-constrained fire CH4 to CO emission ratio maps. Here we show that global fire CH4 emissions averaged 24.0 (17.7–30.4) Tg yr−1 from 2003 to 2020, approximately 27% higher (equivalent to 5.1 Tg yr−1) than average estimates from four widely used fire emission models. This discrepancy likely stems from undetected small fires and underrepresented emission intensities in coarse-resolution data. Our study highlights the value of atmospheric inversion based on fire tracers like CO to track fire-carbon-climate feedback.

Suggested Citation

  • Junri Zhao & Philippe Ciais & Frederic Chevallier & Josep G. Canadell & Ivar R. Velde & Emilio Chuvieco & Yang Chen & Qiang Zhang & Kebin He & Bo Zheng, 2025. "Enhanced CH4 emissions from global wildfires likely due to undetected small fires," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-56218-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56218-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shushi Peng & Xin Lin & Rona L. Thompson & Yi Xi & Gang Liu & Didier Hauglustaine & Xin Lan & Benjamin Poulter & Michel Ramonet & Marielle Saunois & Yi Yin & Zhen Zhang & Bo Zheng & Philippe Ciais, 2022. "Wetland emission and atmospheric sink changes explain methane growth in 2020," Nature, Nature, vol. 612(7940), pages 477-482, December.
    2. Brendan Byrne & Junjie Liu & Kevin W. Bowman & Madeleine Pascolini-Campbell & Abhishek Chatterjee & Sudhanshu Pandey & Kazuyuki Miyazaki & Guido R. Werf & Debra Wunch & Paul O. Wennberg & Coleen M. Ro, 2024. "Carbon emissions from the 2023 Canadian wildfires," Nature, Nature, vol. 633(8031), pages 835-839, September.
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    4. Zhu Liu & Philippe Ciais & Zhu Deng & Ruixue Lei & Steven J. Davis & Sha Feng & Bo Zheng & Duo Cui & Xinyu Dou & Biqing Zhu & Rui Guo & Piyu Ke & Taochun Sun & Chenxi Lu & Pan He & Yuan Wang & Xu Yue , 2020. "Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
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