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Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Josep G. Canadell

    (Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • C. P. (Mick) Meyer

    (Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Garry D. Cook

    (CSIRO Land and Water, CSIRO Land and Water, PMB 44)

  • Andrew Dowdy

    (Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Research Section, Bureau of Meteorology)

  • Peter R. Briggs

    (Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Jürgen Knauer

    (Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Acacia Pepler

    (Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Research Section, Bureau of Meteorology)

  • Vanessa Haverd

    (Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

Abstract

Fire activity in Australia is strongly affected by high inter-annual climate variability and extremes. Through changes in the climate, anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter fire dynamics. Here we compile satellite (19 and 32 years) and ground-based (90 years) burned area datasets, climate and weather observations, and simulated fuel loads for Australian forests. Burned area in Australia’s forests shows a linear positive annual trend but an exponential increase during autumn and winter. The mean number of years since the last fire has decreased consecutively in each of the past four decades, while the frequency of forest megafire years (>1 Mha burned) has markedly increased since 2000. The increase in forest burned area is consistent with increasingly more dangerous fire weather conditions, increased risk factors associated with pyroconvection, including fire-generated thunderstorms, and increased ignitions from dry lightning, all associated to varying degrees with anthropogenic climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Josep G. Canadell & C. P. (Mick) Meyer & Garry D. Cook & Andrew Dowdy & Peter R. Briggs & Jürgen Knauer & Acacia Pepler & Vanessa Haverd, 2021. "Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-27225-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27225-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henriette I. Jager & Charles C. Coutant, 2020. "Knitting while Australia burns," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(3), pages 170-170, March.
    2. Andrew D. King & Andy J. Pitman & Benjamin J. Henley & Anna M. Ukkola & Josephine R. Brown, 2020. "The role of climate variability in Australian drought," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(3), pages 177-179, March.
    3. Mingkai Jiang & Belinda E. Medlyn & John E. Drake & Remko A. Duursma & Ian C. Anderson & Craig V. M. Barton & Matthias M. Boer & Yolima Carrillo & Laura Castañeda-Gómez & Luke Collins & Kristine Y. Cr, 2020. "The fate of carbon in a mature forest under carbon dioxide enrichment," Nature, Nature, vol. 580(7802), pages 227-231, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark A. Adams & Mathias Neumann, 2023. "Litter accumulation and fire risks show direct and indirect climate-dependence at continental scale," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Venn, Tyron J., 2023. "Reconciling timber harvesting, biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration in Queensland, Australia," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Sarah Clement, 2022. "Knowledge governance for the Anthropocene: Pluralism, populism, and decision‐making," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(S3), pages 11-23, December.
    4. Timothy Neal, 2023. "The Importance of External Weather Effects in Projecting the Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Discussion Papers 2023-09, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    5. Forrester, David I. & England, Jacqueline R. & Paul, Keryn I. & Roxburgh, Stephen H., 2024. "Sensitivity analysis of the FullCAM model: Context dependency and implications for model development to predict Australia's forest carbon stocks," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 489(C).
    6. Binod Pokharel & Shankar Sharma & Jacob Stuivenvolt-Allen & Shih-Yu Simon Wang & Matthew LaPlante & Robert R. Gillies & Sujan Khanal & Michael Wehner & Alan Rhoades & Kalpana Hamal & Benjamin Hatchett, 2023. "Amplified drought trends in Nepal increase the potential for Himalayan wildfires," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-21, February.
    7. Matthew R. Auer, 2024. "Wildfire risk and insurance: research directions for policy scientists," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 57(2), pages 459-484, June.

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