IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-53046-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

No universal mathematical model for thermal performance curves across traits and taxonomic groups

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios - Georgios Kontopoulos

    (Imperial College London, Silwood Park
    LOEWE Centre for Translational Biodiversity Genomics
    Senckenberg Research Institute)

  • Arnaud Sentis

    (Aix Marseille University, UMR RECOVER)

  • Martin Daufresne

    (Aix Marseille University, UMR RECOVER)

  • Natalia Glazman

    (Imperial College London, Silwood Park)

  • Anthony I. Dell

    (National Great Rivers Research and Education Center
    Washington University in St. Louis)

  • Samraat Pawar

    (Imperial College London, Silwood Park)

Abstract

In ectotherms, the performance of physiological, ecological and life-history traits universally increases with temperature to a maximum before decreasing again. Identifying the most appropriate thermal performance model for a specific trait type has broad applications, from metabolic modelling at the cellular level to forecasting the effects of climate change on population, ecosystem and disease transmission dynamics. To date, numerous mathematical models have been designed, but a thorough comparison among them is lacking. In particular, we do not know if certain models consistently outperform others and how factors such as sampling resolution and trait or organismal identity influence model performance. To fill this knowledge gap, we compile 2,739 thermal performance datasets from diverse traits and taxa, to which we fit a comprehensive set of 83 existing mathematical models. We detect remarkable variation in model performance that is not primarily driven by sampling resolution, trait type, or taxonomic information. Our results reveal a surprising lack of well-defined scenarios in which certain models are more appropriate than others. To aid researchers in selecting the appropriate set of models for any given dataset or research objective, we derive a classification of the 83 models based on the average similarity of their fits.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios - Georgios Kontopoulos & Arnaud Sentis & Martin Daufresne & Natalia Glazman & Anthony I. Dell & Samraat Pawar, 2024. "No universal mathematical model for thermal performance curves across traits and taxonomic groups," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-53046-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53046-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-53046-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-53046-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gang Li & Yating Hu & Zrimec & Hao Luo & Hao Wang & Aleksej Zelezniak & Boyang Ji & Jens Nielsen, 2021. "Bayesian genome scale modelling identifies thermal determinants of yeast metabolism," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Gabriel Yvon-Durocher & Jane M. Caffrey & Alessandro Cescatti & Matteo Dossena & Paul del Giorgio & Josep M. Gasol & José M. Montoya & Jukka Pumpanen & Peter A. Staehr & Mark Trimmer & Guy Woodward & , 2012. "Reconciling the temperature dependence of respiration across timescales and ecosystem types," Nature, Nature, vol. 487(7408), pages 472-476, July.
    3. Thomas P. Smith & Thomas J. H. Thomas & Bernardo García-Carreras & Sofía Sal & Gabriel Yvon-Durocher & Thomas Bell & Samrāt Pawar, 2019. "Community-level respiration of prokaryotic microbes may rise with global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Ross Corkrey & June Olley & David Ratkowsky & Tom McMeekin & Tom Ross, 2012. "Universality of Thermodynamic Constants Governing Biological Growth Rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(2), pages 1-8, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kala Studens & Benjamin M. Bolker & Jean-Noël Candau, 2024. "Predicting the Temperature-Driven Development of Stage-Structured Insect Populations with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 29(3), pages 536-552, September.
    2. Ryan F. Heneghan & Jacinta Holloway-Brown & Josep M. Gasol & Gerhard J. Herndl & Xosé Anxelu G. Morán & Eric D. Galbraith, 2024. "The global distribution and climate resilience of marine heterotrophic prokaryotes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Gao, Yanni & Yu, Guirui & Li, Shenggong & Yan, Huimin & Zhu, Xianjin & Wang, Qiufeng & Shi, Peili & Zhao, Liang & Li, Yingnian & Zhang, Fawei & Wang, Yanfen & Zhang, Junhui, 2015. "A remote sensing model to estimate ecosystem respiration in Northern China and the Tibetan Plateau," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 304(C), pages 34-43.
    4. Charlotte J. Alster & Allycia Laar & Jordan P. Goodrich & Vickery L. Arcus & Julie R. Deslippe & Alexis J. Marshall & Louis A. Schipper, 2023. "Quantifying thermal adaptation of soil microbial respiration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Chen, Bingzhang, 2022. "Thermal diversity affects community responses to warming," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    6. Ross Corkrey & Tom A McMeekin & John P Bowman & David A Ratkowsky & June Olley & Tom Ross, 2014. "Protein Thermodynamics Can Be Predicted Directly from Biological Growth Rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-15, May.
    7. Ang Hu & Kyoung-Soon Jang & Andrew J. Tanentzap & Wenqian Zhao & Jay T. Lennon & Jinfu Liu & Mingjia Li & James Stegen & Mira Choi & Yahai Lu & Xiaojuan Feng & Jianjun Wang, 2024. "Thermal responses of dissolved organic matter under global change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    8. Iván Domenzain & Benjamín Sánchez & Mihail Anton & Eduard J. Kerkhoven & Aarón Millán-Oropeza & Céline Henry & Verena Siewers & John P. Morrissey & Nikolaus Sonnenschein & Jens Nielsen, 2022. "Reconstruction of a catalogue of genome-scale metabolic models with enzymatic constraints using GECKO 2.0," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Jia Zheng & Ning Guo & Yuxiang Huang & Xiang Guo & Andreas Wagner, 2024. "High temperature delays and low temperature accelerates evolution of a new protein phenotype," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-53046-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.