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Substantial nitrogen abatement accompanying decarbonization suppresses terrestrial carbon sinks in China

Author

Listed:
  • Fang Shang

    (Peking University
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Mingxu Liu

    (Peking University
    Nagoya University)

  • Yu Song

    (Peking University)

  • Xingjie Lu

    (Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Qiang Zhang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Hitoshi Matsui

    (Nagoya University)

  • Lingli Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Aijun Ding

    (Nanjing University)

  • Xin Huang

    (Nanjing University)

  • Xuejun Liu

    (China Agricultural University)

  • Junji Cao

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Zifa Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yongjiu Dai

    (Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Ling Kang

    (Peking University)

  • Xuhui Cai

    (Peking University)

  • Hongsheng Zhang

    (Peking University)

  • Tong Zhu

    (Peking University)

Abstract

China faces challenges in reaching its carbon neutrality goal by the year 2060 to meet the Paris Agreement and improving air quality simultaneously. Dramatic nitrogen emission reductions will be brought by this ambitious target, yet their impact on the natural ecosystem is not clear. Here, by combining two atmospheric chemistry models and two process-based terrestrial ecosystem models constrained using nationwide measurements, we show that atmospheric nitrogen deposition in China’s terrestrial land will decrease by 44–57% following two emission control scenarios including one aiming at carbon neutrality. They consequently result in a pronounced shrinkage in terrestrial net ecosystem production, by 11–20% depending on models and emission scenarios. Our results indicate that the nitrogen emission reductions accompanying decarbonization would undermine natural carbon sinks and in turn set back progress toward carbon neutrality. This unintended impact calls for great concern about the trade-offs between nitrogen management and carbon neutrality.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang Shang & Mingxu Liu & Yu Song & Xingjie Lu & Qiang Zhang & Hitoshi Matsui & Lingli Liu & Aijun Ding & Xin Huang & Xuejun Liu & Junji Cao & Zifa Wang & Yongjiu Dai & Ling Kang & Xuhui Cai & Hongshe, 2024. "Substantial nitrogen abatement accompanying decarbonization suppresses terrestrial carbon sinks in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-52152-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52152-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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