IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-48603-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate extremes in Svalbard over the last two millennia are linked to atmospheric blocking

Author

Listed:
  • Francois Lapointe

    (University of Massachusetts
    University of Massachusetts)

  • Ambarish V. Karmalkar

    (University of Rhode Island)

  • Raymond S. Bradley

    (University of Massachusetts
    University of Massachusetts)

  • Michael J. Retelle

    (Bates College
    The University Center in Svalbard)

  • Feng Wang

    (University of Québec)

Abstract

Arctic precipitation in the form of rain is forecast to become more prevalent in a warmer world but with seasonal and interannual changes modulated by natural modes of variability. Experiencing rapid hydroclimatic changes in the Arctic, Svalbard serves as an ideal study location due to its exposure to oceanic and atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region. Here we use climate data from paleoproxies, observations, and a climate model to demonstrate that wet and warm extremes in Svalbard over the last two millennia are linked to the presence of atmospheric blocking regimes over Scandinavia and the Ural mountain region. Rainfall episodes lead to the deposition of coarse sediment particles and high levels of calcium in Linnévatnet, a lake in southwest Svalbard, with the coarsest sediments consistently deposited during atmospheric blocking events. A unique annually resolved sediment record from Linnévatnet confirms that this linkage has been persistent over the past 2000 years. Our record also shows that a millennial-scale decline in Svalbard precipitation ended around the middle of the 19th century, followed by several unprecedented extreme events in recent years. As warming continues and sea ice recedes, future Svalbard floods will become more intense during episodes of Scandinavian and Ural blocking.

Suggested Citation

  • Francois Lapointe & Ambarish V. Karmalkar & Raymond S. Bradley & Michael J. Retelle & Feng Wang, 2024. "Climate extremes in Svalbard over the last two millennia are linked to atmospheric blocking," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48603-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48603-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-48603-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-48603-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Masato Mori & Yu Kosaka & Masahiro Watanabe & Hisashi Nakamura & Masahide Kimoto, 2019. "A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(2), pages 123-129, February.
    2. Jan Esper & David C. Frank & Mauri Timonen & Eduardo Zorita & Rob J. S. Wilson & Jürg Luterbacher & Steffen Holzkämper & Nils Fischer & Sebastian Wagner & Daniel Nievergelt & Anne Verstege & Ulf Büntg, 2012. "Orbital forcing of tree-ring data," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(12), pages 862-866, December.
    3. Anders Moberg & Dmitry M. Sonechkin & Karin Holmgren & Nina M. Datsenko & Wibjörn Karlén, 2005. "Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data," Nature, Nature, vol. 433(7026), pages 613-617, February.
    4. Christophe Cassou, 2008. "Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation," Nature, Nature, vol. 455(7212), pages 523-527, September.
    5. Pengfei Zhang & Gang Chen & Mingfang Ting & L. Ruby Leung & Bin Guan & Laifang Li, 2023. "More frequent atmospheric rivers slow the seasonal recovery of Arctic sea ice," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(3), pages 266-273, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tian Li & Stefan Hofer & Geir Moholdt & Adam Igneczi & Konrad Heidler & Xiao Xiang Zhu & Jonathan Bamber, 2025. "Pervasive glacier retreats across Svalbard from 1985 to 2023," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jasper G. Franke & Reik V. Donner, 2017. "Dynamical anomalies in terrestrial proxies of North Atlantic climate variability during the last 2 ka," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 87-100, July.
    2. Ping Che & Jianghu Lan, 2021. "Climate Change along the Silk Road and Its Influence on Scythian Cultural Expansion and Rise of the Mongol Empire," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Srihari Sundar & Michael T. Craig & Ashley E. Payne & David J. Brayshaw & Flavio Lehner, 2023. "Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Zaremba, Adam & Bianchi, Robert J. & Mikutowski, Mateusz, 2021. "Long-run reversal in commodity returns: Insights from seven centuries of evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Peringer, Alexander & Gillet, François & Rosenthal, Gert & Stoicescu, Ioana & Pătru-Stupariu, Ileana & Stupariu, Mihai-Sorin & Buttler, Alexandre, 2016. "Landscape-scale simulation experiments test Romanian and Swiss management guidelines for mountain pasture-woodland habitat diversity," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 330(C), pages 41-49.
    6. Terence C. Mills, 2012. "Semi-parametric modelling of temperature records," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 361-383, May.
    7. Feng Shi & Quansheng Ge & Bao Yang & Jianping Li & Fengmei Yang & Fredrik Ljungqvist & Olga Solomina & Takeshi Nakatsuka & Ninglian Wang & Sen Zhao & Chenxi Xu & Keyan Fang & Masaki Sano & Guoqiang Ch, 2015. "A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 663-676, August.
    8. Craig Loehle & J. Huston McCulloch, 2008. "Correction to: A 2000-Year Global Temperature Reconstruction Based on Non-Tree Ring Proxies," Energy & Environment, , vol. 19(1), pages 93-100, January.
    9. John Halley & Dimitris Kugiumtzis, 2011. "Nonparametric testing of variability and trend in some climatic records," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 549-568, December.
    10. Schulze, Kiowa Alraune & Rosenthal, Gert & Peringer, Alexander, 2018. "Intermediate foraging large herbivores maintain semi-open habitats in wilderness landscape simulations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 379(C), pages 10-21.
    11. Fuzhi Lu & Huayu Lu & Yao Gu & Pengyu Lin & Zhengyao Lu & Qiong Zhang & Hongyan Zhang & Fan Yang & Xiaoyi Dong & Shuangwen Yi & Deliang Chen & Francesco S. R. Pausata & Maya Ben-Yami & Jennifer V. Mec, 2025. "Tipping point-induced abrupt shifts in East Asian hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, December.
    12. O'Hara, Phillip Anthony, 2009. "Political economy of climate change, ecological destruction and uneven development," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 223-234, December.
    13. Luo Qin & Guangxin Liu & Xiangzhong Li & E. Chongyi & Jiang Li & Changrun Wu & Xin Guan & Yuan Wang, 2023. "A 1000-year hydroclimate record from the Asian summer monsoon-Westerlies transition zone in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 1-18, March.
    14. Yong Zhang & Lubin Han & Xuemei Shao & Qing Yang & Zhi-Yong Yin, 2021. "Moisture variations during the first millennium CE and their linkage with social developments along the Silk Road in northwestern China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-19, October.
    15. Stratimirovic, Djordje & Batas-Bjelic, Ilija & Djurdjevic, Vladimir & Blesic, Suzana, 2021. "Changes in long-term properties and natural cycles of the Danube river level and flow induced by damming," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 566(C).
    16. Travaglini, Guido, 2011. "Climate change: where is the hockey stick? evidence from millennial-scale reconstructed and updated temperature time series," MPRA Paper 35565, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Johannes Koch & John Clague, 2011. "Extensive glaciers in northwest North America during Medieval time," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 593-613, August.
    18. Feng Wang & Dominique Arseneault & Étienne Boucher & Fabio Gennaretti & Shulong Yu & Tongwen Zhang, 2022. "Tropical volcanoes synchronize eastern Canada with Northern Hemisphere millennial temperature variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    19. Mohammad Sohrabi & Jae Ryu & John Abatzoglou & John Tracy, 2013. "Climate extreme and its linkage to regional drought over Idaho, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 653-681, January.
    20. Pei Xing & Xin Chen & Yong Luo & Suping Nie & Zongci Zhao & Jianbin Huang & Shaowu Wang, 2016. "The Extratropical Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction during the Last Millennium Based on a Novel Method," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48603-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.