IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/nature/v455y2008i7212d10.1038_nature07286.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Cassou

    (CNRS-Cerfacs, Global Change and Climate Modelling project, 42 Avenue G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, France)

Abstract

North Atlantic climate: tropical weather in Europe The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a major source of weather to climate variability over Europe, is generally seen as an intrinsic mode of the atmosphere with no real predictability on medium-range to seasonal timescales. Christophe Cassou now presents evidence that the main climate intra-seasonal oscillation in the tropics (the Madden-Julian Oscillation) controls part of the distribution and sequences of the NAO, and to a lesser extent the other three daily weather regimes that prevail in the region in winter. This finding allows for medium-range predictability of the phase of the NAO far in excess of the one week or so usually quoted as a limit. Cassou presents a simple statistical model to quantitatively assess the potential predictability of the daily NAO index or the sign of its regimes when they occur. His forecasts are successful in about 70% of the cases based on knowledge of the previous 12-day Madden-Julian Oscillation phase as predictor.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Cassou, 2008. "Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation," Nature, Nature, vol. 455(7212), pages 523-527, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:455:y:2008:i:7212:d:10.1038_nature07286
    DOI: 10.1038/nature07286
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/nature07286
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/nature07286?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stratimirovic, Djordje & Batas-Bjelic, Ilija & Djurdjevic, Vladimir & Blesic, Suzana, 2021. "Changes in long-term properties and natural cycles of the Danube river level and flow induced by damming," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 566(C).
    2. Alonzo, Bastien & Ringkjob, Hans-Kristian & Jourdier, Benedicte & Drobinski, Philippe & Plougonven, Riwal & Tankov, Peter, 2017. "Modelling the variability of the wind energy resource on monthly and seasonal timescales," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1434-1446.
    3. Srihari Sundar & Michael T. Craig & Ashley E. Payne & David J. Brayshaw & Flavio Lehner, 2023. "Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Sylvain Cros & Jordi Badosa & André Szantaï & Martial Haeffelin, 2020. "Reliability Predictors for Solar Irradiance Satellite-Based Forecast," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-21, October.
    5. Correia, J.M. & Bastos, A. & Brito, M.C. & Trigo, R.M., 2017. "The influence of the main large-scale circulation patterns on wind power production in Portugal," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(PA), pages 214-223.
    6. Garrido-Perez, Jose M. & Ordóñez, Carlos & Barriopedro, David & García-Herrera, Ricardo & Paredes, Daniel, 2020. "Impact of weather regimes on wind power variability in western Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    7. Francois Lapointe & Ambarish V. Karmalkar & Raymond S. Bradley & Michael J. Retelle & Feng Wang, 2024. "Climate extremes in Svalbard over the last two millennia are linked to atmospheric blocking," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Alonzo, Bastien & Tankov, Peter & Drobinski, Philippe & Plougonven, Riwal, 2020. "Probabilistic wind forecasting up to three months ahead using ensemble predictions for geopotential height," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 515-530.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:455:y:2008:i:7212:d:10.1038_nature07286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.