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Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation

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  • Christophe Cassou

    (CNRS-Cerfacs, Global Change and Climate Modelling project, 42 Avenue G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, France)

Abstract

North Atlantic climate: tropical weather in Europe The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a major source of weather to climate variability over Europe, is generally seen as an intrinsic mode of the atmosphere with no real predictability on medium-range to seasonal timescales. Christophe Cassou now presents evidence that the main climate intra-seasonal oscillation in the tropics (the Madden-Julian Oscillation) controls part of the distribution and sequences of the NAO, and to a lesser extent the other three daily weather regimes that prevail in the region in winter. This finding allows for medium-range predictability of the phase of the NAO far in excess of the one week or so usually quoted as a limit. Cassou presents a simple statistical model to quantitatively assess the potential predictability of the daily NAO index or the sign of its regimes when they occur. His forecasts are successful in about 70% of the cases based on knowledge of the previous 12-day Madden-Julian Oscillation phase as predictor.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Cassou, 2008. "Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation," Nature, Nature, vol. 455(7212), pages 523-527, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:455:y:2008:i:7212:d:10.1038_nature07286
    DOI: 10.1038/nature07286
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    2. Alonzo, Bastien & Ringkjob, Hans-Kristian & Jourdier, Benedicte & Drobinski, Philippe & Plougonven, Riwal & Tankov, Peter, 2017. "Modelling the variability of the wind energy resource on monthly and seasonal timescales," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1434-1446.
    3. Garrido-Perez, Jose M. & Ordóñez, Carlos & Barriopedro, David & García-Herrera, Ricardo & Paredes, Daniel, 2020. "Impact of weather regimes on wind power variability in western Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    4. Srihari Sundar & Michael T. Craig & Ashley E. Payne & David J. Brayshaw & Flavio Lehner, 2023. "Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
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    6. Sylvain Cros & Jordi Badosa & André Szantaï & Martial Haeffelin, 2020. "Reliability Predictors for Solar Irradiance Satellite-Based Forecast," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-21, October.
    7. Alonzo, Bastien & Tankov, Peter & Drobinski, Philippe & Plougonven, Riwal, 2020. "Probabilistic wind forecasting up to three months ahead using ensemble predictions for geopotential height," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 515-530.
    8. Correia, J.M. & Bastos, A. & Brito, M.C. & Trigo, R.M., 2017. "The influence of the main large-scale circulation patterns on wind power production in Portugal," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(PA), pages 214-223.

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