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Urban development pattern’s influence on extreme rainfall occurrences

Author

Listed:
  • Long Yang

    (Nanjing University
    Nanjing University)

  • Yixin Yang

    (Nanjing University
    Nanjing University)

  • Ye Shen

    (Nanjing University
    Nanjing University)

  • Jiachuan Yang

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Guang Zheng

    (Nanjing University)

  • James Smith

    (Princeton University)

  • Dev Niyogi

    (The University of Texas at Austin
    The University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

Growing urban population and the distinct strategies to accommodate them lead to diverse urban development patterns worldwide. While local evidence suggests the presence of urban signatures in rainfall anomalies, there is limited understanding of how rainfall responds to divergent urban development patterns worldwide. Here we unveil a divergence in the exposure to extreme rainfall for 1790 inland cities globally, attributable to their respective urban development patterns. Cities that experience compact development tend to witness larger increases in extreme rainfall frequency over downtown than their rural surroundings, while the anomalies in extreme rainfall frequency diminish for cities with dispersed development. Convection-permitting simulations further suggest compact urban footprints lead to more pronounced urban-rural thermal contrasts and aerodynamic disturbances. This is directly responsible for the divergent rainfall responses to urban development patterns. Our analyses offer significant insights pertaining to the priorities and potential of city-level efforts to mitigate the emerging climate-related hazards, particularly for countries experiencing rapid urbanization.

Suggested Citation

  • Long Yang & Yixin Yang & Ye Shen & Jiachuan Yang & Guang Zheng & James Smith & Dev Niyogi, 2024. "Urban development pattern’s influence on extreme rainfall occurrences," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48533-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48533-5
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