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Global multi-model projections of local urban climates

Author

Listed:
  • Lei Zhao

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
    University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Keith Oleson

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Elie Bou-Zeid

    (Princeton University)

  • E. Scott Krayenhoff

    (University of Guelph)

  • Andrew Bray

    (Reed College)

  • Qing Zhu

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Zhonghua Zheng

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Chen Chen

    (Centre for Climate Research)

  • Michael Oppenheimer

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

Effective urban planning for climate-driven risks relies on robust climate projections specific to built landscapes. Such projections are absent because of a near-universal lack of urban representation in global-scale Earth system models. Here, we combine climate modelling and data-driven approaches to provide global multi-model projections of urban climates over the twenty-first century. The results demonstrate the inter-model robustness of specific levels of urban warming over certain regions under climate change. Under a high-emissions scenario, cities in the United States, Middle East, northern Central Asia, northeastern China and inland South America and Africa are estimated to experience substantial warming of more than 4 K—larger than regional warming—by the end of the century, with high inter-model confidence. Our findings highlight the critical need for multi-model global projections of local urban climates for climate-sensitive development and support green infrastructure intervention as an effective means of reducing urban heat stress on large scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei Zhao & Keith Oleson & Elie Bou-Zeid & E. Scott Krayenhoff & Andrew Bray & Qing Zhu & Zhonghua Zheng & Chen Chen & Michael Oppenheimer, 2021. "Global multi-model projections of local urban climates," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(2), pages 152-157, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00958-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00958-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Kyoung-Tae Lee & Hye-Won Jeon & Sook-Young Park & Jaepil Cho & Kwang-Hyung Kim, 2022. "Comparison of projected rice blast epidemics in the Korean Peninsula between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Eunjoung Lee & Gunwoo Kim, 2022. "Analysis of Domestic and International Green Infrastructure Research Trends from the ESG Perspective in South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Wan Ting Katty Huang & Pierre Masselot & Elie Bou-Zeid & Simone Fatichi & Athanasios Paschalis & Ting Sun & Antonio Gasparrini & Gabriele Manoli, 2023. "Economic valuation of temperature-related mortality attributed to urban heat islands in European cities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Jing, Rui & Liu, Jiahui & Zhang, Haoran & Zhong, Fenglin & Liu, Yupeng & Lin, Jianyi, 2022. "Unlock the hidden potential of urban rooftop agrivoltaics energy-food-nexus," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    5. Long Yang & Yixin Yang & Ye Shen & Jiachuan Yang & Guang Zheng & James Smith & Dev Niyogi, 2024. "Urban development pattern’s influence on extreme rainfall occurrences," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.

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