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Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data

Author

Listed:
  • Simon Cauchemez

    (MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK)

  • Alain-Jacques Valleron

    (Université Pierre et Marie Curie—Paris 6, UMR S 707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France
    INSERM, UMR S 707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France
    AP-HP, Hôpital St Antoine, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France)

  • Pierre-Yves Boëlle

    (Université Pierre et Marie Curie—Paris 6, UMR S 707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France
    INSERM, UMR S 707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France
    AP-HP, Hôpital St Antoine, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France)

  • Antoine Flahault

    (Université Pierre et Marie Curie—Paris 6, UMR S 707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France
    INSERM, UMR S 707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France
    French School of Public Health (EHESP), 1 place du Parvis Notre-Dame, Paris F-75004, France)

  • Neil M. Ferguson

    (MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK)

Abstract

Schools out for influenza One option open to public health authorities facing the prospect of an influenza pandemic is the closure of all the schools. A dramatic gesture, but would it help? There is a shortage of reliable data on the matter, but the Sentinel network, linking over a thousand general practitioners across France, provides a resource that can tackle the question by comparing a 21-year record of daily reported cases of flu-like disease with the dates of school vacations — the timing of which is staggered across France minimizing the impact of seasonal factors. The answer is yes, there is a reduction, of about 20%, in rates of flu transmission to children. This translates into a predicted reduction of about 15% in the overall number of cases if schools were closed during a pandemic, sufficient to reduce stress on the healthcare system, but not to stop the disease in its tracks.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Cauchemez & Alain-Jacques Valleron & Pierre-Yves Boëlle & Antoine Flahault & Neil M. Ferguson, 2008. "Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data," Nature, Nature, vol. 452(7188), pages 750-754, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:452:y:2008:i:7188:d:10.1038_nature06732
    DOI: 10.1038/nature06732
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