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Carbon pricing and system reliability impacts on pathways to universal electricity access in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Hamish Beath

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Shivika Mittal

    (Imperial College London
    CICERO Center for International Climate Research)

  • Sheridan Few

    (Imperial College London
    University of Leeds)

  • Benedict Winchester

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Philip Sandwell

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Christos N. Markides

    (Imperial College London)

  • Jenny Nelson

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Ajay Gambhir

    (Imperial College London)

Abstract

Off-grid photovoltaic systems have been proposed as a panacea for economies with poor electricity access, offering a lower-cost “leapfrog” over grid infrastructure used in higher-income economies. Previous research examining pathways to electricity access may understate the role of off-grid photovoltaics as it has not considered reliability and carbon pricing impacts. We perform high-resolution geospatial analysis on universal household electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa that includes these aspects via least-cost pathways at different electricity demand levels. Under our “Tier 3" demand reference scenario, 24% of our study’s 470 million people obtaining electricity access by 2030 do so via off-grid photovoltaics. Including a unit cost for unmet demand of 0.50 US dollars ($)/kWh, to penalise poor system reliability increases this share to 41%. Applying a carbon price (around $80/tonne CO2-eq) increases it to 38%. Our results indicate considerable diversity in the level of policy intervention needed between countries and suggest several regions where lower levels of policy intervention may be effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamish Beath & Shivika Mittal & Sheridan Few & Benedict Winchester & Philip Sandwell & Christos N. Markides & Jenny Nelson & Ajay Gambhir, 2024. "Carbon pricing and system reliability impacts on pathways to universal electricity access in Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48450-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48450-7
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