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The cost of reliability in decentralized solar power systems in sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Jonathan T. Lee

    (Energy and Resources Group University of California)

  • Duncan S. Callaway

    (Energy and Resources Group University of California)

Abstract

Although there is consensus that both grid extensions and decentralized projects are necessary to approach universal electricity access, existing electrification planning models that assess the costs of decentralized solar energy systems do not include metrics of reliability or quantify the impact of reliability on costs. We focus on stand-alone household solar systems with battery storage in sub-Saharan Africa using the fraction of demand served to measure reliability, and develop a multistep optimization to compute efficiently the least-cost system with the fraction of demand served as a design constraint, and take into account the daily variation in solar resources and costs of solar and storage. We show that the cost of energy is minimized at approximately a 90% fraction of demand served, that current costs increase, on average, by US$0.11 kWh–1 for each additional ‘9’ of reliability, and that this reliability premium could be as low as US$0.03 kWh–1 in a plausible future price scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan T. Lee & Duncan S. Callaway, 2018. "The cost of reliability in decentralized solar power systems in sub-Saharan Africa," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(11), pages 960-968, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:3:y:2018:i:11:d:10.1038_s41560-018-0240-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-018-0240-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Hamish Beath & Shivika Mittal & Sheridan Few & Benedict Winchester & Philip Sandwell & Christos N. Markides & Jenny Nelson & Ajay Gambhir, 2024. "Carbon pricing and system reliability impacts on pathways to universal electricity access in Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Abdul Conteh & Mohammed Elsayed Lotfy & Kiptoo Mark Kipngetich & Tomonobu Senjyu & Paras Mandal & Shantanu Chakraborty, 2019. "An Economic Analysis of Demand Side Management Considering Interruptible Load and Renewable Energy Integration: A Case Study of Freetown Sierra Leone," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, May.
    3. David Abdul Konneh & Harun Or Rashid Howlader & M. H. Elkholy & Tomonobu Senjyu, 2024. "An Agile Approach for Adopting Sustainable Energy Solutions with Advanced Computational Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-26, June.
    4. Wadim Strielkowski & Lubomír Civín & Elena Tarkhanova & Manuela Tvaronavičienė & Yelena Petrenko, 2021. "Renewable Energy in the Sustainable Development of Electrical Power Sector: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-24, December.
    5. Liao, Chuan & Erbaugh, James T. & Kelly, Allison C. & Agrawal, Arun, 2021. "Clean energy transitions and human well-being outcomes in Lower and Middle Income Countries: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. Jing Zhang & Roger Raufer & Lingxuan Liu, 2020. "Solar Home Systems for Clean Cooking: A Cost–Health Benefit Analysis of Lower-Middle-Income Countries in Southeast Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-14, May.
    7. Schauf, Magnus & Schwenen, Sebastian, 2023. "System price dynamics for battery storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    8. Jeuland, Marc & Babyenda, Peter & Beyene, Abebe & Hinju, Gabriel & Mulwa, Richard & Phillips, Jonathan & Zewdie, Samuel A., 2023. "Barriers to off-grid energy development: Evidence from a comparative survey of private sector energy service providers in Eastern Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    9. David Abdul Konneh & Harun Or Rashid Howlader & Ryuto Shigenobu & Tomonobu Senjyu & Shantanu Chakraborty & Narayanan Krishna, 2019. "A Multi-Criteria Decision Maker for Grid-Connected Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems Selection Using Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-36, February.
    10. Adewuyi, Oludamilare Bode & Lotfy, Mohammed E. & Akinloye, Benjamin Olabisi & Rashid Howlader, Harun Or & Senjyu, Tomonobu & Narayanan, Krishna, 2019. "Security-constrained optimal utility-scale solar PV investment planning for weak grids: Short reviews and techno-economic analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C), pages 16-30.
    11. Cuppari, Rosa Isabella & Branscomb, Allan & Graham, Maggie & Negash, Fikeremariam & Smith, Angelique Kidd & Proctor, Kyle & Rupp, David & Tilahun Ayalew, Abiyou & Getaneh Tilaye, Gizaw & Higgins, Chad, 2024. "Agrivoltaics: Synergies and trade-offs in achieving the sustainable development goals at the global and local scale," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 362(C).
    12. Robert Van Buskirk & Lawrence Kachione & Gilbert Robert & Rachel Kanyerere & Christina Gilbert & James Majoni, 2021. "How to Make Off-Grid Solar Electric Cooking Cheaper Than Wood-Based Cooking," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    13. Raul Rotar & Sorin Liviu Jurj & Flavius Opritoiu & Mircea Vladutiu, 2021. "Fault Coverage-Aware Metrics for Evaluating the Reliability Factor of Solar Tracking Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-24, February.
    14. Gorman, Will & Jarvis, Stephen & Callaway, Duncan, 2020. "Should I Stay Or Should I Go? The importance of electricity rate design for household defection from the power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    15. Owusu-Sekyere, Enoch & Cissé, Fatoumata Nankoto & Achandi, Esther Leah, 2024. "Impact of solar energy subscription on the market performance of micro, small & medium enterprises in Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    16. Xu, Qingyang & Sun, Feihu & Cai, Qiran & Liu, Li-Jing & Zhang, Kun & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2022. "Assessment of the influence of demand-side responses on high-proportion renewable energy system: An evidence of Qinghai, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 945-958.

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