IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-45906-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Glacial isostatic adjustment reduces past and future Arctic subsea permafrost

Author

Listed:
  • Roger C. Creel

    (Columbia University
    Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

  • Frederieke Miesner

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Stiig Wilkenskjeld

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Jacqueline Austermann

    (Columbia University)

  • Pier Paul Overduin

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

Abstract

Sea-level rise submerges terrestrial permafrost in the Arctic, turning it into subsea permafrost. Subsea permafrost underlies ~ 1.8 million km2 of Arctic continental shelf, with thicknesses in places exceeding 700 m. Sea-level variations over glacial-interglacial cycles control subsea permafrost distribution and thickness, yet no permafrost model has accounted for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), which deviates local sea level from the global mean due to changes in ice and ocean loading. Here we incorporate GIA into a pan-Arctic model of subsea permafrost over the last 400,000 years. Including GIA significantly reduces present-day subsea permafrost thickness, chiefly because of hydro-isostatic effects as well as deformation related to Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Additionally, we extend the simulation 1000 years into the future for emissions scenarios outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report. We find that subsea permafrost is preserved under a low emissions scenario but mostly disappears under a high emissions scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger C. Creel & Frederieke Miesner & Stiig Wilkenskjeld & Jacqueline Austermann & Pier Paul Overduin, 2024. "Glacial isostatic adjustment reduces past and future Arctic subsea permafrost," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-45906-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45906-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-45906-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-45906-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Angelopoulos & Pier P. Overduin & Frederieke Miesner & Mikhail N. Grigoriev & Alexander A. Vasiliev, 2020. "Recent advances in the study of Arctic submarine permafrost," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 442-453, July.
    2. V. E. Romanovsky & D. S. Drozdov & N. G. Oberman & G. V. Malkova & A. L. Kholodov & S. S. Marchenko & N. G. Moskalenko & D. O. Sergeev & N. G. Ukraintseva & A. A. Abramov & D. A. Gilichinsky & A. A. V, 2010. "Thermal state of permafrost in Russia," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(2), pages 136-155, April.
    3. Aiguo Dai & Dehai Luo & Mirong Song & Jiping Liu, 2019. "Arctic amplification is caused by sea-ice loss under increasing CO2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. K. M. Grant & E. J. Rohling & C. Bronk Ramsey & H. Cheng & R. L. Edwards & F. Florindo & D. Heslop & F. Marra & A. P. Roberts & M. E. Tamisiea & F. Williams, 2014. "Sea-level variability over five glacial cycles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stepan Prokopievich Varlamov & Yuri Borisovich Skachkov & Pavel Nikolaevich Skryabin, 2021. "Long-Term Variability in Ground Thermal State in Central Yakutia’s Tuymaada Valley," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, November.
    2. Yunyu Chen & Qiang Li & Minjie Wen & Yifei Wang & Weiwei Duan, 2022. "Analytical and Numerical Analyses on Vertical Site Responses of Submarine Permafrost in Polar Ocean," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-13, August.
    3. Heather M. Stoll & Isabel Cacho & Edward Gasson & Jakub Sliwinski & Oliver Kost & Ana Moreno & Miguel Iglesias & Judit Torner & Carlos Perez-Mejias & Negar Haghipour & Hai Cheng & R. Lawrence Edwards, 2022. "Rapid northern hemisphere ice sheet melting during the penultimate deglaciation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Galina Malkova & Dmitry Drozdov & Alexander Vasiliev & Andrey Gravis & Gleb Kraev & Yuriy Korostelev & Kirill Nikitin & Pavel Orekhov & Olga Ponomareva & Vladimir Romanovsky & Marat Sadurtdinov & Alex, 2022. "Spatial and Temporal Variability of Permafrost in the Western Part of the Russian Arctic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Mikhail Yu. Filimonov & Yaroslav K. Kamnev & Aleksandr N. Shein & Nataliia A. Vaganova, 2022. "Modeling the Temperature Field in Frozen Soil under Buildings in the City of Salekhard Taking into Account Temperature Monitoring," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, July.
    6. Birgit Wild & Natalia Shakhova & Oleg Dudarev & Alexey Ruban & Denis Kosmach & Vladimir Tumskoy & Tommaso Tesi & Hanna Grimm & Inna Nybom & Felipe Matsubara & Helena Alexanderson & Martin Jakobsson & , 2022. "Organic matter composition and greenhouse gas production of thawing subsea permafrost in the Laptev Sea," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Alyona A. Shestakova & Alexander N. Fedorov & Yaroslav I. Torgovkin & Pavel Y. Konstantinov & Nikolay F. Vasyliev & Svetlana V. Kalinicheva & Vera V. Samsonova & Tetsuya Hiyama & Yoshihiro Iijima & Ho, 2021. "Mapping the Main Characteristics of Permafrost on the Basis of a Permafrost-Landscape Map of Yakutia Using GIS," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, April.
    8. Alexander N. Fedorov & Varvara A. Novopriezzhaya & Nikolay A. Fedorov & Pavel Y. Konstantinov & Vera V. Samsonova, 2020. "Retrospective Analysis of Permafrost Landscape Evolution in Yakutia during the Holocene Warm Intervals," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-11, November.
    9. Gaddy, Hampton Gray, 2020. "Using local knowledge in emerging infectious disease research," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    10. Chenzheng Li & Anatoly V. Brouchkov & Viktor G. Cheverev & Andrey V. Sokolov & Kunyang Li, 2022. "Emission of Methane and Carbon Dioxide during Soil Freezing without Permafrost," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-11, April.
    11. Shiklomanov, Nikolay & Streletskiy, Dmitry & Suter, Luis & Orttung, Robert & Zamyatina, Nadezhda, 2020. "Dealing with the bust in Vorkuta, Russia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    12. Jiechun Deng & Aiguo Dai, 2022. "Sea ice–air interactions amplify multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic and Arctic region," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Stepan Varlamov & Pavel Skryabin & Aleksandr Zhirkov & Zhi Wen, 2022. "Monitoring the Permafrost Conditions along Pipeline Routes in Central Yakutia, Russia," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-15, December.
    14. Binhe Luo & Dehai Luo & Yao Ge & Aiguo Dai & Lin Wang & Ian Simmonds & Cunde Xiao & Lixin Wu & Yao Yao, 2023. "Origins of Barents-Kara sea-ice interannual variability modulated by the Atlantic pathway of El Niño–Southern Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    15. Manuel F G Weinkauf & Fabian G W Bonitz & Rossana Martini & Michal Kučera, 2019. "An extinction event in planktonic Foraminifera preceded by stabilizing selection," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-21, October.
    16. Yu Wang & Pengcheng Yan & Taichen Feng & Fei Ji & Shankai Tang & Guolin Feng, 2021. "Detection of anthropogenically driven trends in Arctic amplification," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-17, December.
    17. Christakos, Konstantinos & Lavidas, George & Gao, Zhen & Björkqvist, Jan-Victor, 2024. "Long-term assessment of wave conditions and wave energy resource in the Arctic Ocean," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    18. Miao Fang & Xin Li & Hans W. Chen & Deliang Chen, 2022. "Arctic amplification modulated by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and greenhouse forcing on multidecadal to century scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    19. Dongmei Feng & Colin J. Gleason & Peirong Lin & Xiao Yang & Ming Pan & Yuta Ishitsuka, 2021. "Recent changes to Arctic river discharge," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    20. Jing Peng & Li Dan & Jinming Feng & Kairan Ying & Xiba Tang & Fuqiang Yang, 2021. "Absolute Contribution of the Non-Uniform Spatial Distribution of Atmospheric CO 2 to Net Primary Production through CO 2 -Radiative Forcing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-18, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-45906-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.