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Arctic amplification is caused by sea-ice loss under increasing CO2

Author

Listed:
  • Aiguo Dai

    (University at Albany, SUNY)

  • Dehai Luo

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Mirong Song

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Jiping Liu

    (University at Albany, SUNY)

Abstract

Warming in the Arctic has been much faster than the rest of the world in both observations and model simulations, a phenomenon known as the Arctic amplification (AA) whose cause is still under debate. By analyzing data and model simulations, here we show that large AA occurs only from October to April and only over areas with significant sea-ice loss. AA largely disappears when Arctic sea ice is fixed or melts away. Periods with larger AA are associated with larger sea-ice loss, and models with bigger sea-ice loss produce larger AA. Increased outgoing longwave radiation and heat fluxes from the newly opened waters cause AA, whereas all other processes can only indirectly contribute to AA by melting sea-ice. We conclude that sea-ice loss is necessary for the existence of large AA and that models need to simulate Arctic sea ice realistically in order to correctly simulate Arctic warming under increasing CO2.

Suggested Citation

  • Aiguo Dai & Dehai Luo & Mirong Song & Jiping Liu, 2019. "Arctic amplification is caused by sea-ice loss under increasing CO2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-07954-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07954-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Miao Fang & Xin Li & Hans W. Chen & Deliang Chen, 2022. "Arctic amplification modulated by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and greenhouse forcing on multidecadal to century scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Jiechun Deng & Aiguo Dai, 2022. "Sea ice–air interactions amplify multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic and Arctic region," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Dongmei Feng & Colin J. Gleason & Peirong Lin & Xiao Yang & Ming Pan & Yuta Ishitsuka, 2021. "Recent changes to Arctic river discharge," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Gaddy, Hampton Gray, 2020. "Using local knowledge in emerging infectious disease research," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    5. Astghik Mavisakalyan & Vladimir Otrachshenko & Olga Popova, 2023. "Does democracy protect the environment? The role of the Arctic Council," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(5), pages 1-21, May.
    6. Binhe Luo & Dehai Luo & Yao Ge & Aiguo Dai & Lin Wang & Ian Simmonds & Cunde Xiao & Lixin Wu & Yao Yao, 2023. "Origins of Barents-Kara sea-ice interannual variability modulated by the Atlantic pathway of El Niño–Southern Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2020. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Papers 2005.02535, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    8. Zhenyu Jin & Yingqing Guo & Chaozhi Qiu, 2022. "Electro-Conversion of Carbon Dioxide to Valuable Chemicals in a Membrane Electrode Assembly," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-24, May.
    9. Daniel J. Vecellio & Oliver W. Frauenfeld, 2022. "Surface and sub-surface drivers of autumn temperature increase over Eurasian permafrost," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-18, May.
    10. Christakos, Konstantinos & Lavidas, George & Gao, Zhen & Björkqvist, Jan-Victor, 2024. "Long-term assessment of wave conditions and wave energy resource in the Arctic Ocean," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    11. Yu Wang & Pengcheng Yan & Taichen Feng & Fei Ji & Shankai Tang & Guolin Feng, 2021. "Detection of anthropogenically driven trends in Arctic amplification," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-17, December.
    12. Roger C. Creel & Frederieke Miesner & Stiig Wilkenskjeld & Jacqueline Austermann & Pier Paul Overduin, 2024. "Glacial isostatic adjustment reduces past and future Arctic subsea permafrost," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    13. Claudia Simolo & Susanna Corti, 2022. "Quantifying the role of variability in future intensification of heat extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    14. Binhe Luo & Dehai Luo & Aiguo Dai & Cunde Xiao & Ian Simmonds & Edward Hanna & James Overland & Jiaqi Shi & Xiaodan Chen & Yao Yao & Wansuo Duan & Yimin Liu & Qiang Zhang & Xiyan Xu & Yina Diao & Zhin, 2024. "Rapid summer Russian Arctic sea-ice loss enhances the risk of recent Eastern Siberian wildfires," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    15. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2021. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Working Papers 21-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    16. Jing Peng & Li Dan & Jinming Feng & Kairan Ying & Xiba Tang & Fuqiang Yang, 2021. "Absolute Contribution of the Non-Uniform Spatial Distribution of Atmospheric CO 2 to Net Primary Production through CO 2 -Radiative Forcing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-18, September.

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