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Process-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models

Author

Listed:
  • Sara M. Blichner

    (Stockholm University, Department of Environmental Science
    Stockholm University, Bolin Centre for Climate Research)

  • Taina Yli-Juuti

    (University of Eastern Finland, Department of Technical Physics)

  • Tero Mielonen

    (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

  • Christopher Pöhlker

    (Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Multiphase Chemistry Dept.)

  • Eemeli Holopainen

    (University of Eastern Finland, Department of Technical Physics
    Finnish Meteorological Institute
    Foundation for Research and Technology - Hellas (FORTH/ICE-HT))

  • Liine Heikkinen

    (Stockholm University, Department of Environmental Science
    Stockholm University, Bolin Centre for Climate Research)

  • Claudia Mohr

    (Stockholm University, Department of Environmental Science
    Stockholm University, Bolin Centre for Climate Research
    ETH Zurich
    Paul Scherrer Institute)

  • Paulo Artaxo

    (Universidade de Sao Paulo, Instituto de Fisica)

  • Samara Carbone

    (Federal University of Uberlândia, Institute of Agrarian Sciences)

  • Bruno Backes Meller

    (Universidade de Sao Paulo, Instituto de Fisica)

  • Cléo Quaresma Dias-Júnior

    (Federal Institute of Pará, Department of Physics)

  • Markku Kulmala

    (University of Helsinki, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR))

  • Tuukka Petäjä

    (University of Helsinki, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR))

  • Catherine E. Scott

    (University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment)

  • Carl Svenhag

    (Lund University, Department of Physics)

  • Lars Nieradzik

    (Lund University, Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science)

  • Moa Sporre

    (Lund University, Department of Physics)

  • Daniel G. Partridge

    (University of Exeter, Department of Mathematics and Statistics)

  • Emanuele Tovazzi

    (University of Exeter, Department of Mathematics and Statistics)

  • Annele Virtanen

    (University of Eastern Finland, Department of Technical Physics)

  • Harri Kokkola

    (University of Eastern Finland, Department of Technical Physics
    Finnish Meteorological Institute)

  • Ilona Riipinen

    (Stockholm University, Department of Environmental Science
    Stockholm University, Bolin Centre for Climate Research)

Abstract

Natural aerosol feedbacks are expected to become more important in the future, as anthropogenic aerosol emissions decrease due to air quality policy. One such feedback is initiated by the increase in biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions with higher temperatures, leading to higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production and a cooling of the surface via impacts on cloud radiative properties. Motivated by the considerable spread in feedback strength in Earth System Models (ESMs), we here use two long-term observational datasets from boreal and tropical forests, together with satellite data, for a process-based evaluation of the BVOC-aerosol-cloud feedback in four ESMs. The model evaluation shows that the weakest modelled feedback estimates can likely be excluded, but highlights compensating errors making it difficult to draw conclusions of the strongest estimates. Overall, the method of evaluating along process chains shows promise in pin-pointing sources of uncertainty and constraining modelled aerosol feedbacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara M. Blichner & Taina Yli-Juuti & Tero Mielonen & Christopher Pöhlker & Eemeli Holopainen & Liine Heikkinen & Claudia Mohr & Paulo Artaxo & Samara Carbone & Bruno Backes Meller & Cléo Quaresma Dias, 2024. "Process-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-45001-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45001-y
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