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Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing

Author

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  • K. S. Carslaw

    (School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK)

  • L. A. Lee

    (School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK)

  • C. L. Reddington

    (School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK)

  • K. J. Pringle

    (School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK)

  • A. Rap

    (School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK)

  • P. M. Forster

    (School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK)

  • G. W. Mann

    (School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
    National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK)

  • D. V. Spracklen

    (School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK)

  • M. T. Woodhouse

    (School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
    Present address: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia.)

  • L. A. Regayre

    (School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK)

  • J. R. Pierce

    (Colorado State University)

Abstract

The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainties in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial period. This uncertainty affects our ability to estimate how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we perform a sensitivity analysis on a global model to quantify the uncertainty in cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period caused by uncertainties in aerosol emissions and processes. Our results show that 45 per cent of the variance of aerosol forcing since about 1750 arises from uncertainties in natural emissions of volcanic sulphur dioxide, marine dimethylsulphide, biogenic volatile organic carbon, biomass burning and sea spray. Only 34 per cent of the variance is associated with anthropogenic emissions. The results point to the importance of understanding pristine pre-industrial-like environments, with natural aerosols only, and suggest that improved measurements and evaluation of simulated aerosols in polluted present-day conditions will not necessarily result in commensurate reductions in the uncertainty of forcing estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • K. S. Carslaw & L. A. Lee & C. L. Reddington & K. J. Pringle & A. Rap & P. M. Forster & G. W. Mann & D. V. Spracklen & M. T. Woodhouse & L. A. Regayre & J. R. Pierce, 2013. "Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing," Nature, Nature, vol. 503(7474), pages 67-71, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:503:y:2013:i:7474:d:10.1038_nature12674
    DOI: 10.1038/nature12674
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    Cited by:

    1. James Weber & Scott Archer-Nicholls & Nathan Luke Abraham & Youngsub Matthew Shin & Paul Griffiths & Daniel P. Grosvenor & Catherine E. Scott & Alex T. Archibald, 2022. "Chemistry-driven changes strongly influence climate forcing from vegetation emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Hailing Jia & Johannes Quaas, 2023. "Nonlinearity of the cloud response postpones climate penalty of mitigating air pollution in polluted regions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(9), pages 943-950, September.
    3. Bingqing Zhang & Nathan J. Chellman & Jed O. Kaplan & Loretta J. Mickley & Takamitsu Ito & Xuan Wang & Sophia M. Wensman & Drake McCrimmon & Jørgen Peder Steffensen & Joseph R. McConnell & Pengfei Liu, 2024. "Improved biomass burning emissions from 1750 to 2010 using ice core records and inverse modeling," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Jean-Sébastien Landry & Navin Ramankutty, 2015. "Carbon Cycling, Climate Regulation, and Disturbances in Canadian Forests: Scientific Principles for Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36, January.
    5. Sara M. Blichner & Taina Yli-Juuti & Tero Mielonen & Christopher Pöhlker & Eemeli Holopainen & Liine Heikkinen & Claudia Mohr & Paulo Artaxo & Samara Carbone & Bruno Backes Meller & Cléo Quaresma Dias, 2024. "Process-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Mira L. Pöhlker & Christopher Pöhlker & Johannes Quaas & Johannes Mülmenstädt & Andrea Pozzer & Meinrat O. Andreae & Paulo Artaxo & Karoline Block & Hugh Coe & Barbara Ervens & Peter Gallimore & Cassa, 2023. "Global organic and inorganic aerosol hygroscopicity and its effect on radiative forcing," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.

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