IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v13y2023i9d10.1038_s41558-023-01775-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nonlinearity of the cloud response postpones climate penalty of mitigating air pollution in polluted regions

Author

Listed:
  • Hailing Jia

    (Leipzig University)

  • Johannes Quaas

    (Leipzig University)

Abstract

Aerosol–cloud interactions contribute substantially to uncertainties in anthropogenic forcing, in which the sensitivity of cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) to aerosol plays a central role. Here we use satellite observations to show that the aerosol–Nd relation (in log–log space) is not linear as commonly assumed. Instead, the Nd sensitivity decreases at large aerosol concentrations due to the transition from aerosol-limited to updraft-limited regime, making the widely used linear method problematic. A sigmoidal transition is shown to adequately fit the data. When using this revised relationship, the additional warming that arises from air pollution mitigation is delayed by two to three decades in heavily polluted locations, compared to the linear relationship. This cloud-mediated climate penalty will manifest markedly starting around 2025 in China and 2050 in India after applying the strongest air quality policy, underlining the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hailing Jia & Johannes Quaas, 2023. "Nonlinearity of the cloud response postpones climate penalty of mitigating air pollution in polluted regions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(9), pages 943-950, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01775-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01775-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01775-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-023-01775-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K. S. Carslaw & L. A. Lee & C. L. Reddington & K. J. Pringle & A. Rap & P. M. Forster & G. W. Mann & D. V. Spracklen & M. T. Woodhouse & L. A. Regayre & J. R. Pierce, 2013. "Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing," Nature, Nature, vol. 503(7474), pages 67-71, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bingqing Zhang & Nathan J. Chellman & Jed O. Kaplan & Loretta J. Mickley & Takamitsu Ito & Xuan Wang & Sophia M. Wensman & Drake McCrimmon & Jørgen Peder Steffensen & Joseph R. McConnell & Pengfei Liu, 2024. "Improved biomass burning emissions from 1750 to 2010 using ice core records and inverse modeling," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Jean-Sébastien Landry & Navin Ramankutty, 2015. "Carbon Cycling, Climate Regulation, and Disturbances in Canadian Forests: Scientific Principles for Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36, January.
    3. Sara M. Blichner & Taina Yli-Juuti & Tero Mielonen & Christopher Pöhlker & Eemeli Holopainen & Liine Heikkinen & Claudia Mohr & Paulo Artaxo & Samara Carbone & Bruno Backes Meller & Cléo Quaresma Dias, 2024. "Process-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. James Weber & Scott Archer-Nicholls & Nathan Luke Abraham & Youngsub Matthew Shin & Paul Griffiths & Daniel P. Grosvenor & Catherine E. Scott & Alex T. Archibald, 2022. "Chemistry-driven changes strongly influence climate forcing from vegetation emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Mira L. Pöhlker & Christopher Pöhlker & Johannes Quaas & Johannes Mülmenstädt & Andrea Pozzer & Meinrat O. Andreae & Paulo Artaxo & Karoline Block & Hugh Coe & Barbara Ervens & Peter Gallimore & Cassa, 2023. "Global organic and inorganic aerosol hygroscopicity and its effect on radiative forcing," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01775-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.