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Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes

Author

Listed:
  • Stephanie Brodie

    (University of California Santa Cruz
    Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    Environment, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO))

  • Mercedes Pozo Buil

    (University of California Santa Cruz
    Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Heather Welch

    (University of California Santa Cruz
    Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Steven J. Bograd

    (University of California Santa Cruz
    Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Elliott L. Hazen

    (University of California Santa Cruz
    Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Jarrod A. Santora

    (National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    University of California)

  • Rachel Seary

    (University of California Santa Cruz
    Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Isaac D. Schroeder

    (University of California Santa Cruz
    Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Michael G. Jacox

    (University of California Santa Cruz
    Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    Earth System Research Laboratories, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Abstract

Forecasting weather has become commonplace, but as society faces novel and uncertain environmental conditions there is a critical need to forecast ecology. Forewarning of ecosystem conditions during climate extremes can support proactive decision-making, yet applications of ecological forecasts are still limited. We showcase the capacity for existing marine management tools to transition to a forecasting configuration and provide skilful ecological forecasts up to 12 months in advance. The management tools use ocean temperature anomalies to help mitigate whale entanglements and sea turtle bycatch, and we show that forecasts can forewarn of human-wildlife interactions caused by unprecedented climate extremes. We further show that regionally downscaled forecasts are not a necessity for ecological forecasting and can be less skilful than global forecasts if they have fewer ensemble members. Our results highlight capacity for ecological forecasts to be explored for regions without the infrastructure or capacity to regionally downscale, ultimately helping to improve marine resource management and climate adaptation globally.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanie Brodie & Mercedes Pozo Buil & Heather Welch & Steven J. Bograd & Elliott L. Hazen & Jarrod A. Santora & Rachel Seary & Isaac D. Schroeder & Michael G. Jacox, 2023. "Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-43188-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43188-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. B. A. Block & I. D. Jonsen & S. J. Jorgensen & A. J. Winship & S. A. Shaffer & S. J. Bograd & E. L. Hazen & D. G. Foley & G. A. Breed & A.-L. Harrison & J. E. Ganong & A. Swithenbank & M. Castleton & , 2011. "Tracking apex marine predator movements in a dynamic ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 475(7354), pages 86-90, July.
    2. Jarrod A. Santora & Nathan J. Mantua & Isaac D. Schroeder & John C. Field & Elliott L. Hazen & Steven J. Bograd & William J. Sydeman & Brian K. Wells & John Calambokidis & Lauren Saez & Dan Lawson & K, 2020. "Habitat compression and ecosystem shifts as potential links between marine heatwave and record whale entanglements," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Michael G. Jacox & Michael A. Alexander & Dillon Amaya & Emily Becker & Steven J. Bograd & Stephanie Brodie & Elliott L. Hazen & Mercedes Pozo Buil & Desiree Tommasi, 2022. "Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves," Nature, Nature, vol. 604(7906), pages 486-490, April.
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