IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v14y2023i1d10.1038_s41467-023-42475-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Linking climate warming and land conversion to species’ range changes across Great Britain

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew J. Suggitt

    (Northumbria University)

  • Christopher J. Wheatley

    (University of York)

  • Paula Aucott

    (University of Portsmouth)

  • Colin M. Beale

    (University of York
    University of York)

  • Richard Fox

    (Butterfly Conservation, Manor Yard, East Lulworth, Wareham)

  • Jane K. Hill

    (University of York)

  • Nick J. B. Isaac

    (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford)

  • Blaise Martay

    (British Trust for Ornithology, Beta Centre (Unit 15), Stirling University Innovation Park)

  • Humphrey Southall

    (University of Portsmouth)

  • Chris D. Thomas

    (University of York)

  • Kevin J. Walker

    (Botanical Society of Britain and Ireland, Room 14, Bridge House, 1-2 Station Bridge)

  • Alistair G. Auffret

    (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)

Abstract

Although increased temperatures are known to reinforce the effects of habitat destruction at local to landscape scales, evidence of their additive or interactive effects is limited, particularly over larger spatial extents and longer timescales. To address these deficiencies, we created a dataset of land-use changes over 75 years, documenting the loss of over half (>3000 km2) the semi-natural grassland of Great Britain. Pairing this dataset with climate change data, we tested for relationships to distribution changes in birds, butterflies, macromoths, and plants (n = 1192 species total). We show that individual or additive effects of climate warming and land conversion unambiguously increased persistence probability for 40% of species, and decreased it for 12%, and these effects were reflected in both range contractions and expansions. Interactive effects were relatively rare, being detected in less than 1 in 5 species, and their overall effect on extinction risk was often weak. Such individualistic responses emphasise the importance of including species-level information in policies targeting biodiversity and climate adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J. Suggitt & Christopher J. Wheatley & Paula Aucott & Colin M. Beale & Richard Fox & Jane K. Hill & Nick J. B. Isaac & Blaise Martay & Humphrey Southall & Chris D. Thomas & Kevin J. Walker & Al, 2023. "Linking climate warming and land conversion to species’ range changes across Great Britain," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42475-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42475-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42475-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-023-42475-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew J. Suggitt & Robert J. Wilson & Nick J. B. Isaac & Colin M. Beale & Alistair G. Auffret & Tom August & Jonathan J. Bennie & Humphrey Q. P. Crick & Simon Duffield & Richard Fox & John J. Hopkins, 2018. "Extinction risk from climate change is reduced by microclimatic buffering," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 713-717, August.
    2. Charlotte L. Outhwaite & Peter McCann & Tim Newbold, 2022. "Agriculture and climate change are reshaping insect biodiversity worldwide," Nature, Nature, vol. 605(7908), pages 97-102, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Felix Neff & Fränzi Korner-Nievergelt & Emmanuel Rey & Matthias Albrecht & Kurt Bollmann & Fabian Cahenzli & Yannick Chittaro & Martin M. Gossner & Carlos Martínez-Núñez & Eliane S. Meier & Christian , 2022. "Different roles of concurring climate and regional land-use changes in past 40 years’ insect trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Raja Imran Hussain & Daniela Ablinger & Walter Starz & Jürgen Kurt Friedel & Thomas Frank, 2024. "Understanding the Dynamics of Sex-Specific Responses Driven by Grassland Management: Using Syrphids as a Model Insect Group," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Alexandru-Mihai Pintilioaie & Beatrice Daniela Filote & Lucian Sfîcă & Emanuel Ștefan Baltag, 2022. "Weather Influence on Native and Alien Mantis Dynamics and Their Abundance in the Current Climate Change Conditions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-10, November.
    4. Yuna Zhang & Jing Li & Deren Liu, 2024. "Spatial Downscaling of ERA5 Reanalysis Air Temperature Data Based on Stacking Ensemble Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Maclean, Ilya M.D. & Klinges, David H., 2021. "Microclimc: A mechanistic model of above, below and within-canopy microclimate," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 451(C).
    6. Daijun Liu & Philipp Semenchuk & Franz Essl & Bernd Lenzner & Dietmar Moser & Tim M. Blackburn & Phillip Cassey & Dino Biancolini & César Capinha & Wayne Dawson & Ellie E. Dyer & Benoit Guénard & Evan, 2023. "The impact of land use on non-native species incidence and number in local assemblages worldwide," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Bonnet, Céline & Coinon, Marine, 2024. "Environmental co-benefits of health policies to reduce meat consumption: A narrative review," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Ujjwal Layek & Nitol Krishna Baghira & Alokesh Das & Arijit Kundu & Prakash Karmakar, 2023. "Dependency of Crops on Pollinators and Pollination Deficits: An Approach to Measurement Considering the Influence of Various Reproductive Traits," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-11, August.
    9. Mark K. L. Wong & Raphael K. Didham, 2024. "Global meta-analysis reveals overall higher nocturnal than diurnal activity in insect communities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Thomas F. Johnson & Nick J. B. Isaac & Agustin Paviolo & Manuela González-Suárez, 2023. "Socioeconomic factors predict population changes of large carnivores better than climate change or habitat loss," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Alistair G. Auffret & Jens-Christian Svenning, 2022. "Climate warming has compounded plant responses to habitat conversion in northern Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. Xinbei Huang & Chengming Ye & Hongyu Tao & Junjie Zou & Yuzhan Zhou & Shufan Zheng, 2024. "Integrating Future Multi-Scenarios to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-19, July.
    13. Jessika Konrad & Ralph Platen & Michael Glemnitz, 2024. "The Effects of Vegetation Structure and Timber Harvesting on Ground Beetle (Col.: Carabidae) and Arachnid Communities (Arach.: Araneae, Opiliones) in Short-Rotation Coppices," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-30, January.
    14. Silvio Marta & Anaïs Zimmer & Marco Caccianiga & Mauro Gobbi & Roberto Ambrosini & Roberto Sergio Azzoni & Fabrizio Gili & Francesca Pittino & Wilfried Thuiller & Antonello Provenzale & Gentile France, 2023. "Heterogeneous changes of soil microclimate in high mountains and glacier forelands," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Yaqiu Zhu & Bangyou Zheng & Qiyou Luo & Weihua Jiao & Yadong Yang, 2023. "Uncovering the Drivers and Regional Variability of Cotton Yield in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-16, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42475-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.