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Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandra B. Hogan

    (University of New South Wales
    School of Public Health, Imperial College London)

  • Patrick Doohan

    (School of Public Health, Imperial College London)

  • Sean L. Wu

    (University of Washington)

  • Daniela Olivera Mesa

    (School of Public Health, Imperial College London)

  • Jaspreet Toor

    (School of Public Health, Imperial College London)

  • Oliver J. Watson

    (School of Public Health, Imperial College London
    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • Peter Winskill

    (School of Public Health, Imperial College London)

  • Giovanni Charles

    (School of Public Health, Imperial College London)

  • Gregory Barnsley

    (School of Public Health, Imperial College London
    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • Eleanor M. Riley

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • David S. Khoury

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Neil M. Ferguson

    (School of Public Health, Imperial College London)

  • Azra C. Ghani

    (School of Public Health, Imperial College London)

Abstract

With the ongoing evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus updated vaccines may be needed. We fitted a model linking immunity levels and protection to vaccine effectiveness data from England for three vaccines (Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222, Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2, Moderna mRNA-1273) and two variants (Delta, Omicron). Our model reproduces the observed sustained protection against hospitalisation and death from the Omicron variant over the first six months following dose 3 with the ancestral vaccines but projects a gradual waning to moderate protection after 1 year. Switching the fourth dose to a variant-matched vaccine against Omicron BA.1/2 is projected to prevent nearly twice as many hospitalisations and deaths over a 1-year period compared to administering the ancestral vaccine. This result is sensitive to the degree to which immunogenicity data can be used to predict vaccine effectiveness and uncertainty regarding the impact that infection-induced immunity (not captured here) may play in modifying future vaccine effectiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandra B. Hogan & Patrick Doohan & Sean L. Wu & Daniela Olivera Mesa & Jaspreet Toor & Oliver J. Watson & Peter Winskill & Giovanni Charles & Gregory Barnsley & Eleanor M. Riley & David S. Khoury &, 2023. "Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-39736-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39736-3
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    1. Adam K. Wheatley & Jennifer A. Juno & Jing J. Wang & Kevin J. Selva & Arnold Reynaldi & Hyon-Xhi Tan & Wen Shi Lee & Kathleen M. Wragg & Hannah G. Kelly & Robyn Esterbauer & Samantha K. Davis & Helen , 2021. "Evolution of immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 in mild-moderate COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
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